NFTRH57 went in depth on a broad spectrum of market indicators and short term scenarios. One of which included the oh so satisfying state of the VIX. But really, we don't expect the bull case to just fold up its tent and go home, now do we? No, maybe we expect a little more earnings hype, a lit ... Read more

AKA my 3 current bear positions (along with VIX calls) are looking constructive for a bottom. But knowing the nature of hope, I am by no means over confident. I'll look to add to these and others as appropriate if hope makes a temporary comeback. ... Read the full post ... Read more

Somebody's gotta do it. So I am once again short China via FXP and real estate via SRS. This goes with VIX calls that I have been slowly adding. Now, the market owes me nothing and I have a strong mindset resulting from what has been a great year since going all in with the gold miners last Octob ... Read more

So AAPL reports tonight. And the public is so nervous about what St. Stephen might say that the options trade at about a 52 week low in volatility terms. Yes that's correct, 52 week lows ahead of news. You don't see that too often unless you look at something like KO. Now we have a few t ... R ... Read more

As we face another day that may have an up VIX and up SPX, it's time for a weekly reminder that these are strange times in VIX-land. Despite the early strength, the VIX remains over 4 points below August futures. This disparity has persisted for a while as the VIX churns around 25 while Augus ... Read more

So we've written much about this disparity between August VIX futures and the VIX itself. But is there a way to "lock in" the inevitable convergence? Lawrence McMillan (who is actually one of the great ones in this business) recommends a play wherein you buy modestly ITM August VIX puts v ... Read more

Haven't had a chance to view this myself yet, but apparently it's Jane Wells sitdown at Chez Lenny. HT anonymous commenter in the post below. Also, the letter is officially legit as Todd sent me this link to a Philly.com article that got Lenny's confirmation ... Read the full post ... Read more

Got some bearish bets going on yesterday in XRT, via OptionMONSTER. The first set of big trades is a bearish " butterfly spread " in July. In one trade, 25,000 of the July 22 puts were bought for $0.05, 50,000 of the July 24 puts were sold for $0.10, and 25,000 of the July 26 puts were b ... Read more

As we well know, VIX is not the only measure of Fear in town. CSFB has one too, based on the skew of the SPX options board. Can we glean anything when the two tell different stories? Jason Goepfert suggests yes. So CSFB created a new index that compares the premiums in calls versus puts, di ... Read more

So no sooner do I say the VIX will stay heavy for a couple weeks, lo and behold it explodes. Not sure I said that exactly, but let me clarify the point. The VIX will likely understate "real" implied volatility for the next couple weeks. Remember the VIX is a statistical calculation desig ... Read more