Mood Moves Masters of the Universe

From Rick Santelli's apparently not-so-spontaneous Chicago Tea Party rant (a shadow of CNBC's Jim Cramer whose "They Know Nothing" tirade against Ben Bernanke - over whom Cramer recently swooned - helped launch the Fat Cat Rant genre at the beginning of the bear market in 2007) to the cringe-inducing "My Bad" of newly installed RNC chair Michael Steele, the forces of opposition are more or less right where we would expect them to be, in the words of Allen Ginsberg, "starving, hysterical, naked."

Those looking for social mood clues to a bottom in the stock market can add the incoherence of the opposition to the bullish side of the ledger.  While it is hard to have a great deal of confidence that mood - and the markets - are likely to improve in the near term, the longer we go without a major break, the more likely we are to find our footing and begin the ascent higher.  No less than Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International, recently called for traders to cover their shorts due to the high risk of a intermediate term rally that could be, in Prechter's words, "quite painful" for those who are short stocks.

One of the clues I have been looking for has been bullishness in commodities.  Insofar as what this economy needs is inflation, any strength in commodities would be a sign of renewed confidence in recovery going forward.  So far, that bullishness has not been apparent.  Only precious metals have retained some of their strength and even that has suffered in recent days as the metals have pulled back.

From a Dow Theory perspective, we have our confirmation to the downside.  And while we are likely to get a bounce of some sort, that confirmation clearly points to more downside.  If nothing else, the Crying of Rick Santelli may be more remembered as dull light at the way station toward truly potent and far more strategically placed, opposition discontent.