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Trading > Amateur Investors
Historical Long Term Time And Symmetry
Bob Kleyla | Fri, 03/07/2008 - 5:11am | Dow
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Time and Symmetry, Dow, F, Historical Bull Markets, Long Term Dow
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If you look at a historical chart of the Dow going all the way back to the early 1900's on a Log scale there appears to have been two long term upside moves lasting 33 years. The first one began with the Bear Market low in 1932 and ended in late 1965 (points A to B) in which the Dow gained +2366% after 33 years. Meanwhile the 2nd long term upside move began with the Bear Market low in late 1974 and may have peaked with the high made in October of 2007 (points C to D) in which the Dow gained +2391% during a 33 year period. It's amazing to me how similar these two long term upside moves looked after plottting the chart.
Meanwhile the last time the Dow went through an extended upside move lasting 33 years this was followed by a consolidation period in which the Dow got stuck in a trading range for 17 years from 1966 through 1982. However keep in mind although the Dow basically was at the same level in 1982 as it was in late 1965 that the low actually occurred in late 1974 as mentioned above. Thus you have to wonder if the Dow will now go through an extended consolidation period over the next several years much like occurred from the mid 1960's through the early 1980's.
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