Historical Cyclical Bear and Bull Markets since 1896 part 1

The chart below shows an Inflation Adjusted S&P Composite from the mid 1890's through 2009 based on data from Rober Shiller along with each Cyclical Bull and Bear Market (I ended the Cyclical Bear Market in 1942 as it made a higher low although one could argue it lasted through the early 1950's).   On average the previous three Cyclical Bear Markets lasted from 12 to 14 years.

As you can see we are now in the 4th Cyclical Bear Market since the mid 1890's which have all been preceded by significant Cyclical Bull Markets.   Thus once the current Cyclical Bear Market ends this will be followed by another significant Cyclical Bull Market at some point in the future. 

If the historical pattern repeats itself then this current Cyclical Bear Market would last from 12 to 14 years so if it started in 2000, as the Inflation Adjusted S&P Composite suggests, then that would lead to an ending time at some point in the 2012 -2014 time period unless we see a more prolonged Cyclical Bear Market like Japan has seen which has lasted nearly 20 years.   

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Bob
Amateur-Investor.Net