The table below shows the number of up and down days leading up to and the day after Christmas since 1896.  As you can see there is a slight downward bias 4 trading days before Christmas while the 3rd and 1st trading days before Christmas have an upward bias.   Meanwhile t ... Read more

A lot of investors have been talking about the Golden Cross of late which is when the 50 Day Moving Averages crosses the 200 Day Moving Average to the upside which is supposed to be a bullish sign. Well let's look at some data going back to 1896 in the Dow and see if it's really that bullish o ... Read more

Since 1896 we have seen 3 Cyclical Bear Markets and currently are now experiencing a 4th one.   If you analyze the Inflation Adjusted Data not only for the S&P Composite but the PE Ratios as well one thing has stood out with each previous Cyclical Bear Market.  Bear Market B ... Read more

The chart below shows an Inflation Adjusted S&P Composite from the mid 1890's through 2009 based on data from Rober Shiller along with each Cyclical Bull and Bear Market (I ended the Cyclical Bear Market in 1942 as it made a higher low although one could argue it lasted through the early ... Read more

The current Elliott Wave structure for the Dow looks very similar to that of the 1937-1938 time period as shown in the chart below.  In 1938 the Dow completed a 5 Wave pattern to the downside in just over a year in which it lost 50% of its value.   This was then followed by a 3 week ... Read more

For those that follow Elliott Wave Theory the S&P 500 is now exhibiting the final 5th Wave down of a longer term pattern that began with the October 2007 high.   By definition the length of Wave 1 can equal the length of Wave 5.  Wave 1 had a length of 319 points so if you ... Read more

Many claim that how January performs will give a clue for how the year will end up.  Looking at the data in the Dow going back to 1897 yields the following results as shown in the table below. Since 1897 if January has had a positive Return then the chance of a positive Yearly Return is 8 ... Read more

Let's go through the basic definitions of Elliott Wave Theory and see if they apply to the S&P 500.  In theory we should see 3 Waves down and 2 Waves up for a classic looking 5 Wave pattern.  Looking at a Weekly Chart shows there have been 4 potential Waves since the October 200 ... Read more

Here are some Christmas Week Statistics going back to 1896 involving the Dow.  As you can see there is a slight upward bias the 3 trading days prior to Christmas with the day before Christmas having the highest probability to the upside.  Meanwhile the day after Christmas has a slig ... Read more

The S&P 500 has completed "2" Elliott 5 Wave patterns to the downside after peaking in October of 2007.  The first 5 Wave pattern ended in March which was followed by a 2 month rally in the S&P 500 which gained 14.6%.  After the oversold rally ended in late May the ... Read more