V Day

Wednesday started strong and faded off late day, but still closed slightly green.  Volume increased today leaving option expiration week with the normal tone of increasing daily into Friday.  Gold closed down $3.50 to $866.10 and oil down $1.56 to $124.24 a barrel.  CPI data gave the market a shot in the arm early morning, but not everyone is agreeing that the data is legit and leaving the door open for an adjustment later to be made. 

Into Thursday we have 8:30 data and then Bernanke speaks at 9:30.  Which should be watched and could provide nice volatility for us.  The SOX was the powerhouse on Wednesday running to the 200dma and then backing off to leave a shooting star on the day.  The VIX ran down to 16.19 which we have been watching for a move under 17 and closer to 15 for weeks now.  Well today delivered that move.  The Nas Composite ran into the 200dma and retraced off it the last two hours of the day.  The Nas 100 gapped over May’s highs but came back to close within the range.  S&P 500 tried to run along and also gave up late day to leave a shooting star.  The strength we had early on was GREAT for the bulls, but giving up this much ground late day is not so great…hahah  Alright really it is not good for the bulls to do that and at such a critical area.  Now with leaving a shooting star on the day across the broader markets we have to wait another day for confirmation or to see them not confirm and for the bulls to pop this over. 

Early Thursday we can look for a weak start, this close was just too weak after such a strong start.  Gap and go days are not usually “V” days but today sure came back off that high to leave a V day.  Financials were just not impressive again today and left an inside narrow range day for us.  The BKX (banks) left us still sitting on the 50dma and brokers are still in range but over the 50dma.  Our moving averages are still in bullish order on the broader markets and we are still in range and just under the January highs.  So overall not a lot changed today, but the weak close may shake a few trees tomorrow.  Keep in mind it is expiration week and we see odd stuff just to clear some business up.  Monday was a trend day, Tuesday was a zigzag day, Wednesday a V reversal day.  Leaving Thursday as a likely zigzag day, hopefully a bigger range than Tuesday’s and Friday to probably come in fairly digestive.  Keep that in mind as we open tomorrow and don’t get to far ahead of the market with anticipating, wait for the setups to come. 

Economic data for the week:   Thursday 8:30 Empire State Business Conditions Index, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 9:00 TIC Net Long Term Transaction, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 10:00 Phil Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Report, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index.  Friday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:00 Consumer Sentiment.   

Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute):   Thursday pre market BBI, JCP, MESA, URBN and after the bell ADSK, BRCD, HPQ, KSS, JWN, CRM.  Friday pre market ANF. 

ES (S&P 500 e-mini)  Thursday’s pivot 1412.25,  weekly 1398.25, monthly 1369.50.  Intraday support:  1407.25, 1405.75-1404.50, 1402.50-1401.50, 1398.75-1398, 1394.75, 1391.75, 1389.75, 1386.25, 1383.75.   Resistance:  1412.75, 1414.50,  1416, 1418.50, 1421.50, 1424.

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