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Tgif Off A Volatile Week
Thursday surprised the market and recovered yesterdays late fall plus some. Leaving the broader markets green across the board on mixed volume. The NYSE volume fell well off yesterday’s but the Nasdaq managed to outpace yesterday’s volume. Futures were lighter across the board on volume. Crude closed down 10 cents at 124.12 after a very volatile day. Gold closed up$13.50 at $880 an ounce on the day.
Into Friday we have May options expiration and a market that is trying to hold the weeks gains. The Nasdaq Composite managed to clear the 200dma, we need another day over to confirm this break. The Nas 100 finished the day at the highs and just under a gap left from January 3rd, which will be resistance at 2051.76 and we have 2039.96 78.6% Fib resistance just ahead of that. The S&P 500 is within striking distance of the 200dma (1428.18), leaving us still just holding here. But in the January range and just off the years highs. The Dow is just like the SPX, within points of the 200dma (13016.45), but also sits under the May 2nd swing high 13132.46 resistance. Overall all the indicators are fine with further upside, but the daily upper Bollinger bands are very tight on us up here. Leaving it hard to just move, a gap up over them would allow for a move and then pullback within. But we would need a catalyst to see that kind of momentum and nothing is scheduled for tomorrow that could do that. So we have to be patient and let the momentum or lack of it at times work this out.
The bulls did very well today and impressive, but the light volume is a problem. We usually see volume increase into option expiration not decrease so a light NYSE and light futures market is a small red flag. Historically expiration day is good volume and a tug of war for movement. The market likes to keep both sides in check on expiration to clear the positions on both sides. Which will keep things quiet for us after the first 90 minutes most likely. Early data will kick off our day and then Consumer Sentiment into 10. The VIX closed at 16.30, levels we have not seen since October 11th, 2007. Which put in a top for 2007 on the S&P 500 and the Dow, the Nasdaq Composite had one higher move on Oct 31st which marked the years high. SOOOO do not get overly bullish and stay on your toes here.
Economic data for the week: Friday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:00 Consumer Sentiment.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute): Friday pre market ANF.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday’s pivot 1419.25, weekly 1398.25, monthly 1369.50. Intraday support: 1422., 1418.50, 1416.25, 1414, 1411.25, 1409.25, 1407.25. Resistance: 1425.50, 1430, 1432.75, 1437.50, 1439, 1444.
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