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Monday Kicks Off Options Expiration Week
Friday left the market red across the broader markets on light volume. We saw the volume decrease throughout the week. The week closed with the Nasdaq giving up half of last weeks gains, S&P 500 and the Dow gave up all last weeks gains. Gold closed the day up $3.70 at $885.80 and oil up $2.19 to $125.88 a barrel.
The weekly look at the broaders markets is giving us a look of more downside to come. Bearish engulfing candles off last weeks highs and all we need is another week to confirm that to send us back down. Financial were showing signs of improvement until the second half of the week and now the Brokers and Banks look weaker and pretty nasty overall. The SOX left a doji on the week, so a little more data is needed to confirm or reject that still.
This week will be on and off for economic data, but earnings are all but over with for us. The VIX closed at 19.41 on Friday. We are still lingering around 20 and we’ll need another leg up to see this move turn the VIX down beyond 17. But the daily and weekly charts are not pointing us up from here. BUT last weeks light volume doesn’t leave me with a lot of conviction despite the possible patterns setting up. We will tread lightly into Monday as we kick off options expiration week. Generally we see volume pick up Tuesday-Thursday of expiration week and the volatility follows.
Economic data for the week: Monday 2:00 Treasury Budget, Tuesday 6:10 am Cleveland Fed Bank Pres. Pianalto speaks, 7:45 UBS Store Sales, 8:20am Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks, 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Import Price Index, 8:55 Redbook, 10:00 Business Inventories, 11:00 Phil Fed Reserve Pres Plosser speaks, 1:00 SF Fed Reserve Pres. Yellen speaks, 1:00 Kansas City Fed Reserve Pres. Hoenig speaks, 1:30 Dallas Fed Pres Fisher speaks. Wednesday 7:00 MBA Purchase Applications, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 4:40 pm SF Fed Bank Pres. Yellen speaks. Thursday 8:30 Empire State Business Conditions Index, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 9:00 TIC Net Long Term Transaction, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 10:00 Phil Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Report, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Friday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:00 Consumer Sentiment.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute): Monday pre market MBI, S, XMSR and after the bell TWTC. Tuesday pre market LIZ, WMT, SIRI and after the bell AMAT, ERTS, FLML, PAAS, WFMI. Wednesday pre market DE, FRE, M, JBX, SNE, and after the bell A, IMOS, PETM, SINA. Thursday pre market BBI, JCP, MESA, URBN and after the bell ADSK, BRCD, HPQ, KSS, JWN, CRM. Friday pre market ANF.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Monday’s pivot 1388.75, weekly 1398.25, monthly 1369.50. Intraday support: 1387.25- 1386 (38.2%), 1383.75, 1374.50, 1372, 1370.75, 1362.75. Resistance: 1391, 1393.25, 1397.50, 1399, 1403, 1407.50, 1411, 1414, 1416.25, 1422.25.
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