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Meandering Monday

Posted on 07/21/2008 19:45:13 | Link | Post Comment

Monday brought a very dull range bound day in for the markets.  Slightly red across the board after  a day of doing a lot of nothing.  Our volume was the lightest we’ve seen since June 23rd, which just happen to be the Monday following options expiration.  Afterhours the fireworks started, but we’ll get to that in a few minutes.  Gold closed up $6.20 at $963.20 and oil up $2.69 at $131.56 a barrel. 

Afterhours brought out the bad news to send the globex session on futures straight down.  Along with many big stocks that will no doubt impact our opening tomorrow.  American Express (AXP), Sandisk (SNDK), Apple (AAPL), Texas Instrument (TXN) along with others all trading lower.  As I type this Apple is off about 14 points, TXN about 4.00 and AXP about 5.00…VERY nasty.  Nothing good on guidance to help see any light in that tunnel either for the bulls (as a side not, Steve Jobs did not handle the conference call…. The CFO is handling it, he generally does so that is playing right into the “he is ill again” rumor mill and pushing the stock even lower).  We do have more earnings tomorrow morning that can either help to turn or do more damage.  These announcements were really bad, just not a single upbeat things coming out of these.  That will be very difficult to absorb in an already skittish market. 

Technically this narrow range day didn’t really change much technically on the market.  Which is why this afterhours drop is more significant because it is expanding our range and will create a large gap.  We will look for a lower start on the day and handle that very carefully.  Watch the opening range, meaning we give it 5-10 minutes to setup and look at the opening first 5 minutes highs and lows to see what the market can do.  We haven’t seen a gap and go in awhile so don’t rule it out if the mornings earnings are as nasty as the afterhours.

Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover):  Tuesday 8:10 Treasury Secretary Paulson Speaks, 8:30 FOMC Plosser speaks, 10:00 House Price Index, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, Wednesday 7:00 MBA Purchase Applications, 10:35 Crude Inventories, 2:00 Fed’s Beige Book, Thursday 8:30 Initial Claims, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 FOMC Geithner speaks, 10:35 Natural Gas Inventories, Friday 8:30 Durable Orders, 9:55 Mich Sentiment Rev., 10:00 New Home Sales.

Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute):   Tuesday pre market AKS, BIIB, BJS, CAT, CHKP, CME, DD, FITB, FRX, HAL, JBLU, LXK, LMT, STI, TLAB, UAUA, UNH, UPS, LCC, USG, WB, WU, XTO and after the bell BRCM, ETFC, ISRG, LLTC, NSC, PNRA, STM, VMW, WM, YHOO.  Wednesday pre market ATI, T, BA, COP, EMC, FCX, GD, GENZ, MCD, NWA, BTU, PEP, PFE, R, WLP, WYE, ZBRA and after the bell AMZN, BIDU, CRA, CMG, FFIV, FNF, ISIL, LSI, NE, NVEC, OSIP,  PHM, QCOM, RMBS, RYL, TUP, VARI, VAR.  Thursday pre market MMM, ALK, BBI, BMY, BG, CELG, DOW, LLY, F, LLL, LM, LVLT, NCC, NEM, PENN, PFCB, POT, PCH, RSH, SCHL, POOL, LUV, HOT, SU, TASR, TRA, UTEK, XRX, ZMH, and after the bell AFFX, CAKE, DECK, KLAC, LSCC, MCHP, MSCC, VSEA, WYNN, YRCW.  Friday pre market CVH, FSS, FO, NFLX, NS, and nothing after the bell of interest.

ES (S&P 500 e-mini)  Tuesday’s pivot 1261.50, weekly pivot 1241.50, monthly pivot 1322.50.   Intraday support: 1258.75, 1256.50, 1253.50-1252, 1249.50, 1246.25, 1242.50-1241.50 (weekly pivot), 1238.75, 1234.50, 1226.50, 1220.50, 1215.25, 1211.50.  Resistance: 1261.75, 1263.25, 1266, 1268.25, 1272, 1276.50, 1278.75, 1293.

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