June Ends Ugly

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June Ends Ugly

Posted on 07/01/2008 02:46:53 | Link | Post Comment

Monday brought in a split market, but basically a nothing day. The Nasdaq was slightly red while the S&P 500 and Dow were slightly green. Really was lackluster and disappointing action with split volume. The NYSE was slightly lower than Friday and the Nasdaq was slightly higher, futures were slightly lower across the board. So pretty much a big fat neutral nothing day for this market to open up on this shortened week. Month of June closed red across the board and very ugly. We started June on one side and ended on the other of the spectrum. The bears just ate the April and May gains all month. Gold closed down $2.80 to $928.50 and oil up 12 cents at $140.38 a barrel.

More financial rumors on write downs passed through the afternoon and we still didn’t see a big drop. The market did react and fall off, but we were already headed in that direction when the rumors of several new write downs surfaced. Our problem today was lack of interest in tech. Google received a nice upgrade and was not able to do a lot to ignite the tech side of the market. Take a look at IBM, HPQ, AAPL, CSCO, RIMM, QCOM…all down significantly on the day. The Nasdaq just wasn’t able to help the market hold on and do a lot for the close of Q2 and June.

Into Tuesday we have some news after the opening and no earnings to care about. Given our close on and near the lows of the day, I would normally look for further downside. But because we are still looking for that retracement off the ABC patterns and also the inverted head and we are short term oversold, I’m looking for some early upside. It is also the first day of July and our first day and even into the 2^nd day of a new month/quarter historically is a bullish bias. That doesn’t usually play far for me, but given where we sit technically I would like to see the bulls come in and pop us around for awhile.

We do have bigger pieces of data on Wednesday and Thursday, but with Thursday being a shortened day things maybe a little odd as we get into Thursday. A busy early move and nothing after is very likely. Leaving Tuesday and Wednesday to work this market around for us. Volume is staying pretty decent and that shows folks are around and just waiting on a setup to come.

Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 00:00 Auto and Truck Sales, 7:45 UBS Store Sales, 8:55 Redbook, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Index, Wednesday 6:00 Monster Employment Index, 7:00 MBA Purchase Applications, 8:15 ADP Employment, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:35 Crude Inventories, Thursday 8:30 Average Workweek, 8:30 Hourly Earnings, 8:30 Initial Claims, 8:30 Nonfarm Payrolls, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 10:00 ISM Services, Markets close early at 1 pm est. Friday US Markets are closed for Independence day

Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute): Tuesday pre market STZ, SMSC and after the bell APOL. Wednesday pre market FDO, ISLE, and after the bell WDFC. Thursday pre market MESA and after the bell SYMM, PAY. Friday US markets are closed for Independence day.

ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday’s pivot 1283.50 weekly pivot 1297. Intraday support: 1281.50, 1279, 1276.75- 1275.50, 1272.75, 1269.50, 1265.75, 1260.25. Resistance: 1284, 1287, 1289.25, 1292, 1296-1297.75, 1299.25, 1302.25, 1304.25-1305.25, 1310.25, 1313, 1316.75, 1318.75, 1322.25 gap fills-1324, 1327.50.

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Teresa Appleton

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