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July 1st Fired Up The Fireworks
Tuesday brought a green market on higher volume to give the market a much needed relief bounce. The ISM and Construction spending data came in positive to give the market an early lift off a weak start. The morning then faded and was again given a shot of buying when the market saw the GM data come in better than expected. Gold closed the day up $16.20 at $944.50 and crude closed up $1.06 at $141.06 a barrel.
Tuesday closed the day with nice support hammers, they will need confirmation with another day closing higher. But this was a nice move up and it had participation throughout the day on the ups and downs of the day. Daily stochastics turned up and will also need to now see the CCI move back to -100 and MACD start to turn. Remember Stochastics usually move first and get whippy with nothing else coming along to confirm the signals. We were oversold and this is nothing more than a move off those lows for now and something we respect as an oversold bounce, not a market bottom or reversal.
Into Wednesday we’ll see 8:15 data from ADP on employment ahead of the actual government data due on Thursday morning. Generally we get the government data on Friday but our shortened week is squeezing things up a day. We’ll need to see early continuation off Tuesday’s nice strong close. Otherwise I’m afraid this will be used as a shorting opportunity and folks walk away into the long weekend with this negative bias. However, another up day might generate some concern and keep the interest into Thursday. With this being a holiday week it’s hard to imagine we see huge moves, but today’s volume was impressive. We had higher volume on June 20th and nothing even close to today’s level since April 1st and most of March has similar volume on the NYSE. The Nasdaq’s volume wasn’t quite as impressive as far as levels that were well over what we’ve seen since March but it was right in there with the highs in the past 6 months. Futures were at levels we haven’t seen since mid March.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 6:00 Monster Employment Index, 7:00 MBA Purchase Applications, 8:15 ADP Employment, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:35 Crude Inventories, Thursday 8:30 Average Workweek, 8:30 Hourly Earnings, 8:30 Initial Claims, 8:30 Nonfarm Payrolls, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 10:00 ISM Services, Markets close early at 1 pm est. Friday US Markets are closed for Independence day
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute): Wednesday pre market FDO, ISLE, and after the bell WDFC. Thursday pre market MESA and after the bell SYMM, PAY. Friday US markets are closed for Independence day.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday’s pivot 1278 weekly pivot 1297. No test of weekly pivots yet, so we’ll look for that on any strength into Wednesday. Intraday support: 1281.50, 1279, 1277, 1273.75, 1270.75, 1266.50, 1261-1259. Resistance: 1287, 1290.50, 1292, 1296-1297.75, 1299.25, 1302.25, 1304.25-1305.25, 1310.25, 1313, 1316.75, 1318.75, 1322.25 gap fills-1324, 1327.50.
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