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Fed Is Hinting At The Future
Wednesday brought the bulls out to play and left the market green across the broader markets. Volume came in on the NYSE but stayed just a hair off on the Nasdaq and futures were lighter. So a little split there. I wasn’t a fan of the upside all day, made me a little uncomfortable seeing such bullish action ahead of the FOMC announcement since we pretty much knew what would happen. Late day saw the sellers step in but we did hang onto green for the day. The Fed held steady on rates at 2% and managed to heighten the concern in the statement on inflation. This was pretty expected and they definitely stepped out the limb some with inflation concerns. Signally future rate increases near term if the inflation can’t tone it down in the near term and the dollar strengthen along the way. Gold closed down $10.20 at $881.40 and oil up $2.49 at $134.51 a barrel.
After hours is doing some damage to the market. RIMM came in light and fell off hard taking the market down with them. ORCL and NKE didn’t help the matter and we are still drifting lower in the globex session. Leaning toward a weak opening for us. We have early economic data and the GDP data is likely to be a real mover. Existing home sales at 10 is also a potential mover. We have gaps under us and over us. We also gave the weekly pivots a look today, finally and then came off those levels and dropped. That will be big resistance overhead now.
The ABC’s are still in motion and getting worked out. The S&P 500 sits just over 70.7% (1310.68) and is into the C leg of the ABC pattern possibly forming. We have the measured move and 78.6% just under us at 1296.20 area to keep looking for as big support. The Dow (INDU) is well into its C leg on the ABC pattern possibly forming and has about 110ish points to fall until it’s complete. Tthe March 10th lows down at 11731 got a look today and we have the January lows 11634 still under us. Now remember the C legs don’t necessarily have to be symmetrical, but if this is our pattern and we have A and B formed and symmetrical on the SPX and INDU. Which leaves us a little more room to fall to finish the C leg. Joining the SPX and INDU is the SOX, which has the A and B, C leg can take us onto the 372-370 area.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Chain Deflator-Final, 8:30 GDP Final, 8:30 Initial Claims, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 Help Wanted Index, 10:30 EIA Natural Gas Report, Friday 8:30 Personal Income, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 PCE Core Inflation, 10:00 Consumer Sentiment.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute): . Thursday pre market CRMT, DFS, FLE, LEN, MKC, and after the bell CAN, FINL, INTV, MU, PALM, TIBX, PAY. Friday pre market KBH, SCS.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot 1326.50 weekly pivot 1335.25. Intraday support: 1321.50, 1317.75, 1314.75 gap fill, 1312.25, 1310.50, 1306.75, 1305.25, 1302.75, 1299, 1296.50, 1291.25-1290.25, 1280.25. Resistance: 1322.25, 1324.75, 1327, 1329.50 38.2%, 1332.75, 1336.75-1337.25, 1340.25, 1341.50 fills gap, 1344.50 61.8%, 1349.75-1350.50.
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