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Can The Cpi Help The Bulls Wednesday?

Posted on 05/14/2008 02:52:14 | Link | Post Comment

Tuesday brought a narrow range day across the broader markets.  The Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite closed green on higher volume.  The S&P 500 and the Dow closed slightly red and also on higher volume.  The pace was pretty slow today and felt like we were in a food processor for half the day, but we did manage to move with a lagging financial sector and a strong tech market it was a lot of tug of war with split markets.  Gold closed down $14.60 at $870.30 an ounce and oil closed up $1.60 at $125.83 a barrel. 

Into Wednesday we kick off the day with early economic data and normally we see the CPI move the markets.  After Tuesday’s close and narrow range digesting Monday’s trend day we haven’t moved a lot but the market is poised for a move.  The clock is wound and needs to strike bull or bear.  The 65 minute charts are all possible double tops, cup and handles and even possible inverted head and shoulders carving out for us.  Which means we are ready to move and the cup and handles or inverted head and shoulders all point us higher with a trigger.  The Double tops would be putting the brakes on the move.  Overall we are looking good for higher, but we’ve been at this same resistance and rejected before.  We are also nearing the January highs and that brings the market back to where we started the year as we enter what is historically a “Sell in May and go away” time.  Last year the summer was great trading and plenty of volume so I’m not giving the old adage a lot of thought. 

Early we look for the data to set the tone and then pull us in if that move is to the upside.  We’ve seen retracements into 38.2% each day and then resume the upside, look for the same thing into Wednesday.  So far the week has produced a trend day, a zig ag narrow range day.  Which leaves us still looking for a “V” reversal day, another zigzag day ahead of Friday’s expiration. 

Economic data for the week:   Wednesday 7:00 MBA Purchase Applications, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 4:40 pm SF Fed Bank Pres. Yellen speaks.  Thursday 8:30 Empire State Business Conditions Index, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 9:00 TIC Net Long Term Transaction, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 10:00 Phil Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Report, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index.  Friday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:00 Consumer Sentiment.   

Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute):   Wednesday pre market DE, FRE, M, JBX, SNE, and after the bell A, IMOS, PETM, SINA.  Thursday pre market BBI, JCP, MESA, URBN and after the bell ADSK, BRCD, HPQ, KSS, JWN, CRM.  Friday pre market ANF. 

NQ (Nas 100 e-mini)  Wednesday’s  pivot 2000.50,  weekly 1973.50,  monthly 1887 .  Support:  2000, 1994.50, 1990.50, 1988.50, 1983.50, 1979.50, 1972.50, 1962.75.   Resistance:   2009, 2011.75, 2015.75, 2020.50, 2031.75.

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