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Can The Bulls Confirm Last Weeks Action?
Friday delivered a narrow range dull day with mixed results. The Nasdaq closed red and the S&P 500 along with the Dow closed slightly green. The Volume was lighter than Thursday’s which is unusual for expiration day, but it doesn’t surprise me given the week of volatility we had. The VIX closed at 24.05 after piercing 30 earlier in the week. Crude lost about 11% this week to close down .59 to $128.70 a barrel. These are levels crude was trading at early June, which is giving the market a nice break from high commodity prices. Gold fell $13.60 to $957.00 an ounce.
The Nas composite (COMPX) and the Nas 100 (NDX) turned off the 100 line on the CCI. The Stochastics are still open to the upside with the MACD, but the RSI and CCI are headed down. The S&P 500 and the Dow are both turned up on every indicator. All 4 indexes are over the 10dma and just into the 20dema, even though moving averages are still all in very bearish order. The key sectors are all still pointed higher and recovered all the losses in July. Weekly charts left nice big hammers on the week. Hammers that have long lower shadows that are this long and bigger than the bodies are powerful support candles. This will still need confirmation but still leaves the door open for the bulls next week. Weekly indicators are also turning up and all are bullish engulfing…IF we get confirmation with a higher close this next week.
Our economic data is sparse next week, but this is one of the heaviest earnings weeks of the quarter to come. There will be plenty of reasons for the market to move and after Friday’s digestive nature we are set and rested for a move. The Nasdaq lagged, that is showing us that tech, particularly internets lagged terribly. Google contributed to that problem and suffered the worst drop in the companies history off the earnings Thursday after the bell. The market will look at earnings to follow and more tech companies rolling out this week to digest the Google story. AMZN and BIDU are this week, which will tell if that is a Google story or sector wide. More financials will come and we’ve seen the biggest banks hold up, but the smaller disappoint. Next week we’ll see if that continues to be the story and I think now the market is seeing the devil and knowing what is said and seeing it is getting part of the fear out of the way. BAC is in the pre market Monday, which is unusual to get a big stock in the pre market on a Monday, but it will no doubt be closely looked at and help set the tone on financials. I don’t have a lot of bias at this point going into Monday, but I am probably more inclined to lean up for a bounce then see what the market can do than fall off early on. We have weekly pivots under us and as we know it is rare for the markets to NOT test those during the week. So don’t get to bullish even with this past week’s action.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 Leading Indicators, Tuesday 8:10 Treasury Secretary Paulson Speaks, 8:30 FOMC Plosser speaks, 10:00 House Price Index, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, Wednesday 7:00 MBA Purchase Applications, 10:35 Crude Inventories, 2:00 Fed’s Beige Book, Thursday 8:30 Initial Claims, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 FOMC Geithner speaks, 10:35 Natural Gas Inventories, Friday 8:30 Durable Orders, 9:55 Mich Sentiment Rev., 10:00 New Home Sales.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute): Monday pre market BAC, MRK, SGP, and after the bell AMLN, AAPL, BSX, QLGC, SNDK, STLD, TXN, VLTR. Tuesday pre market AKS, BIIB, BJS, CAT, CHKP, CME, DD, FITB, FRX, HAL, JBLU, LXK, LMT, STI, TLAB, UAUA, UNH, UPS, LCC, USG, WB, WU, XTO and after the bell BRCM, ETFC, ISRG, LLTC, NSC, PNRA, STM, VMW, WM, YHOO. Wednesday pre market ATI, T, BA, COP, EMC, FCX, GD, GENZ, MCD, NWA, BTU, PEP, PFE, R, WLP, WYE, ZBRA and after the bell AMZN, BIDU, CRA, CMG, FFIV, FNF, ISIL, LSI, NE, NVEC, OSIP, PHM, QCOM, RMBS, RYL, TUP, VARI, VAR. Thursday pre market MMM, ALK, BBI, BMY, BG, CELG, DOW, LLY, F, LLL, LM, LVLT, NCC, NEM, PENN, PFCB, POT, PCH, RSH, SCHL, POOL, LUV, HOT, SU, TASR, TRA, UTEK, XRX, ZMH, and after the bell AFFX, CAKE, DECK, KLAC, LSCC, MCHP, MSCC, VSEA, WYNN, YRCW. Friday pre market CVH, FSS, FO, NFLX, NS, and nothing after the bell of interest.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Monday’s pivot 1258.50, weekly pivot 1241.50, monthly pivot 1322.50. Intraday support: 1257.75, 1255.50, 1253.50-1252, 1249.50, 1245.75-1243.75, 1241, 1238.75, 1231.25, 1224, 1218.75, 1213.75, 1210.50. Resistance: 1260.50, 1263, 1266, 1269.25, 1273.50, 1278.75, 1285.50, 1293.
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