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Bulls Showed Up Finally
Tuesday brought a nice green market across the board and participation even joined in. The NYSE volume was the best we’ve seen since June 20th and the Nasdaq was the best since June 24th. Gold closed down $6.50 to $922.30 and oil closed down $54.0 at $135.97.
The Nas Composite recovered the last 4 days losses and is just under the 10dma. The CCI came back over -100 nicely and the Stochastics turned up, MACD is touching as well. The Nas 100 the leader Monday which left us looking for strength today and delivered another up day. The NDX is back where it was July 1st and has the indicators all pointing up and a move just over the 10dma. The S&P 500 is back to July 2nd’s range, about mid point. Nice engulfing pattern off the lows, along with the CCI, Stoch and MACD all trying to turn up. The Dow is just back to July 2nd range and like the SPX is possibly an engulfing pattern. Brokers were just shy of recovering all the losses since June 30th. MACD is touching for a cross up, Stoch crossed up and the CCI is back over the -100 line headed up to 0. The Banks are back to June 30th levels and has the MACD trying to come out of the flatline its been in for a cross up, Stoch are up and the CCI is headed up toward the 0 line. The SOX held 78.6% support 353.30 support and left a nice hammer for support. The indicators aren’t as strong as the financials, but they are trying to turn up.
Basically it was a great relief move in a bear market, but don’t dig in deep here. Our volume returned and we saw nice participation, some of this came off the Fannie and Freddie news, but it isn’t really the catalyst. The market had a light holiday week and we are over the hump now and moving along. Bringing the market back to pre holiday levels and now we’ll look for a little more upside to come in and for some life to continue to move in. Oil is letting the market have some relief too, which is a nice boost. But oil is up huge and due for this fall just like the broader market is due for this upside move. Nothing goes in a straight line forever, today we saw that. The last few rallies have not held and that is normal in a bear market, but we don’t fall everyday all day either in a bear market. The last time we saw crude move like this on the down side was the 9th and 10th of June, on the 11th it regained the losses over those two days and ran hard for days. Uptrend is still intact just like the down for the equities market.
Into Wednesday we’ll look for some early upside. AA rallied after the bell on earnings and futures are up as I type this. The overseas markets will come in ours about 2:30-4 am est and see that we settled strong and that may keep the push going. A gap up will be harder for us to deal with if it’s large, but a smaller one we’ll look for the opening range to hold and then possibly a gap and go kind of morning. Flat opening isn’t real likely but possible and again we would look for upside. A down opening I’ll have to see if it is news driven or the cause to decide if the profit takes let this lift be short lived.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 7:00 MBA Purchases, 10:35 Crude Inventories, Thursday 8:30 Initial Claims, 10:35 Natural Gas Inventories, 3:30 SF Fed Reserve Bank Pres Yellen speaks, Friday 8:30 Export Prices ex-ag, 8:30 Import Prices ex-oil, 8:30 Trade Balance, 9:55 Mich Sentiment, 2:00 Treasury Budget
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute): Wednesday pre market ISCA, and after the bell RT. Thursday pre market FAST, MAR, PGR, TXI and after the bell INFY. Friday pre market GE.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday’s pivot 1264.25, weekly pivot 1270.75. Intraday support: 1266, 1263-1262.50, 1258.25-1257.75, 1254.25, 1251, 1248.25, 1243.50, 1240.75. Resistance: 1275, 1278 (38.2%), 1282, 1285.75, 1289.25, 1293.25.
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