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Stock Investing > The Longish View

Two Pieces of Wisdom for the New Year

Tom Hughes | Wed, 01/07/2009 - 9:00am | 2009 forecast wisdom, Bruce Sterling, James Surowiecki, Madoff fraud, The New Yorker |  1 comment

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James Surowiecki, staff writer for The New Yorker, has an excellent column on the Madoff fraud.  his best point comes at the end, where he talks about the loss of confidence in markets and what that means:

If there’s one thing worse than too much confidence it’s not enough. Fraud impoverishes a few; fear impoverishes the many.

That strikes me as totally correct. Confidence ebbs and flows but at some level confidence must always be present for markets to function. Thinking about that, I came across this great thought from Bruce Sterling, the great science-fiction writer, editor and commentator, in his (apparently traditional) year-end interview with The Well:

When you can't imagine how things are going to change, that doesn't mean that nothing will change. It means that things will change in ways that are unimaginable.

So there you have my idea about 2009. Confidence is at historic post-war lows; and how that will change in 2009 is unimaginable.

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