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This thought has briefly entered my brain in the past week, but I don't think we're in a bear...the data doesn't conclusively say anything's changed. We're just entiering a long overdue correction. The Wright Model (from Jonathan Wright at the Fed) still suggests about a 45% chance of recession, though. If you think the fed will cut, this should be just like '95 again. If not, then more like 1990. Maybe that seems too simple, maybe not but that's what I see right now. If you want higher prices, seems we need commodities to move lower and help cut inflation off so Bernanke et al can swing the machete at 5.25% ...

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