This is an update to an earlier post . As I've noted for some time, housing leads the economy and is the best leading indicator for the economy - both into and out of recessions. Employment lags the economy, and the following graph shows the relationship between starts and unemployment. ... Rea ... Read more

The stats are out for October and the closed transactions for the month were strong.  I’ve asked around about the impact of the First Time home buyer tax credit, but no one tracks this data.  Not the MLS and not our brokerage.  From our experience we know of no one using this tax credit w ... Read more

Somebody's gotta do it. So I am once again short China via FXP and real estate via SRS. This goes with VIX calls that I have been slowly adding. Now, the market owes me nothing and I have a strong mindset resulting from what has been a great year since going all in with the gold miners last Octob ... Read more

Just when you think you’ve seen everything - wham! - you learn something new. We had a beautiful property close recently with a sale value in the top 2% of the market (in the Edmonton the top 10% of the... ... Read the full post ... Read more

We started the year looking for two key construction spending stories: a likely bottom for residential construction spending, and the collapse in private non-residential construction. This report shows further evidence of both stories. Click on graph for larger image in new window. The ... Read more

How should we feel about knife catchers? They were warned of the risks and bought anyway. Now we are paying to clean up the mess.  Asking Price: $300,000 Address: 7 E Smokestone #3 Irvine, CA 92614 Something went wrong along the way Everybody's waiting f ... Read the full ... Read more

From Reuters: Mortgage Delinquencies Rise Alongside Unemployment (ht Ron Wallstreetpit ) Reuters reports that a record 7.58% of U.S. homeowners with mortgages were 30+ days delinquent in August, up from 7.32% in July ... and up from 4.89% in August 2008. Reuters also notes that delinquencies ... Read more

We all complain about the prices in Irvine -- which are ridiculous and will continue to fall -- but many of these overpriced properties are very attractive homes and beautiful places to live. Asking Price: $1,849,000 Address: 8 New Dawn Irvine, CA 92620 Pretty ... Read the ful ... Read more

Click on graph for larger image in new window. Total housing starts were at 598 thousand (SAAR) in August, up 1.5% from the revised July rate, and up sharply from the all time record low in April of 479 thousand (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1 ... R ... Read more