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The Club for Growth has put together a "Senate Control Index," based on aggregating data on the Tradesports futures contracts on all the individual Senate races. At last posting, the Club is estimating that the GOP will lose 3 seats (and that the Democrats will gain those 3 seats). I've done the same exercise with slightly different methodology, and come up with slightly different results. I show the GOP losing 4 seats and the Dems losing 3, for a net GOP loss of 1. But that's too optimistic, because one of those Dem losses is Joe Lieberman, and another is Jim Jeffords -- two races in which a Dem loss is not a GOP gain. On the other hand, you could argue that the GOP loss of Chafee isn't really a loss -- true in terms of voting, but not true in terms of the margin of control which determines committee chairmanships. This is going to be close.

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