Below are the risk scores, from PMI, for the top 50 metropolitan areas, minus New Orleans:

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif., 599
Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y., 589
Boston-Quincy, Mass., 588
Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif., 588
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, Calif., 585
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif., 583
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, Calif., 582
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif., 575
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-Mass., 568
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, Calif., 560
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif., 559
Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, Mass., 537
Edison, N.J., 536
New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J., 498
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev., 481
Newark-Union, N.J.-Penn., 459
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla., 441
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.Va., 431
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla., 359
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis., 355
Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, Mich., 337
Baltimore-Towson, Md., 307
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla., 294
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C., 278
Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, Mich., 184
Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla., 179
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz., 175
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga., 165
Denver-Aurora, Colo., 149
Philadelphia, 130
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, Ill., 127
St. Louis, Mo.-Ill., 112
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, Wash., 109
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, Ore.-Wash., 108
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis., 108
Kansas City, Mo.-Kan., 101
Austin-Round Rock, Texas, 93
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, N.C.-S.C., 87
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas, 83
Dallas-Plano-Irving, Texas, 80
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, Tenn., 71
Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas, 69
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, Ohio, 68
Columbus, Ohio, 65
San Antonio, 65
Cincinnati-Middletown, Ohio-Ky.-Ind., 64
Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark., 61
Indianapolis-Carmel, Ind., 58
Pittsburgh, 57

The average risk score for the country's largest metropolitan statistical areas was 288 in the first quarter, one point up from the last quarter and 70 points up from a year ago. During the quarter, 25 metropolitan areas saw increases in risk, while 20 saw decreases.
The index uses data from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the PMI affordability index to assign 50 of the country's largest metropolitan areas a score from one to 1,000.

A score of 100 means the area has a 10% chance its home prices will decline over the next two years. Higher scores mean a greater risk of home-price declines in the future. The New Orleans area was left out of the quarter's results due to the impact of Hurricane Katrina.

We have seen these lists every month from various publications and the same theme has been true for the past dozen years: The cities where no one wants to move to are cheap for a reason! And, even today, the San Francisco Bay Area remains a very strong rental and sale market because demand is very high and supply very low because it is such a desirable place to live.

Now, let's compare San Francisco to Scottsdale. The average home price in San Francisco is twice that of Scottsdale. But, guess what? So is the median income.

In the October, 2005 issue of Money Magazine Columbia University professor Chris Mayer calls San Francisco (and a few others) "Supercities" stating, "To be a supercity, you need two things: limited ability for new construction and big demand. San Francisco is the extreme example of a supercity: Since 1940, housing prices have increased 2.1% more each year than they have in other cities. These cities are simply attractive places to live for high-income people to live."

His conclusion: that despite the recent boom, prices in most big cities have remained in line with long-term trends.