Realtors Lower U.S. Outlook Again

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Realtors Lower U.S. Outlook Again

Posted on 06/08/2007 07:47:18 | Link | Post Comment

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has cut their 2007 forecast - again. From the NAR: Home Sales Projected to Fluctuate Narrowly With a Gradual Upturn

National Association of Realtors' Lawrence Yun, senior economist, said the market is relatively soft:

“Overall housing levels are historically strong, but sales remain sluggish compared to the recent boom,” he said. “Home sales will probably fluctuate in a narrow range in the short run, but gradually trend upward with improving activity by the end of the year. It’s important to keep in mind that all real estate is local, and many markets are expected to have higher sales and strengthening prices during the second half of this year.”
“We continue to experience a temporary distortion in comparing median existing-home prices,” Yun said. “Because the sales volume has shifted from many high-cost areas to moderately priced markets, we’re not getting a true apples-to-apples comparison. When you look at other measures, such as this week’s price index from Freddie Mac which is based on repeat sales, overall home prices are rising slowly.”

Existing-home sales are projected to total 6.18 million in 2007. In February the NAR forecast sales would fall to 6.44 million. In April they revised their forecast to 6.34 million (a decline of 2.2% from 2006). Their new forecast is a decline of 4.6%. Still too high, but I suppose if they revise their forecast down 2% every couple of months, they might be close by the end of the year!

Also, the government thinks that competition in the real estate brokerage industry is hindered, and consumers would likely benefit from knowing more about options in brokerage services and fees, according to an April report from the FTC and the Department of Justice. See full report.

Rust Belt sees highest foreclosure risk from CNN Money: A new survey says the nation's former industrial centers are most likely to gain foreclosure momentum. The top 10 judged with the lowest risk include Phoenix at number one, West Palm Beach, Florida, Ft. Lauderdale and Salt Lake City.

Read why It's a good time to be a landlord in San Francisco [GlobeST]

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker from SA for 6/7