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Today's Market Movers
Posted on 01/12/2007 09:04 AM | Link | Post Comment
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Here are some headlines that may move the markets today.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and SAP (SAP) Issue Profit Warnings- I believe technology is making its way back from the trenches, but too much emphasis is being put on the launch of Microsoft's new software launch (Vista). If you have guys like Cramer screaming buy tech before the launch, and saying sell the day after the release, don't you think the smart money will be ahead of the game?
Longer term, I think technology stocks will make a nice comeback, and that bodes well for the NASDAQ and select technology mutual funds. In our Fidelity Select Sector Fund portfolio, we are currently holding the Fidelity Select Computers & Software (FSCSX) fund. For January, it is ranked 5 out of the top 15 funds in the portfolio.
Retail Sales Rose 0.9% in December- This is really a good news, bad news scenario. Its good that retailers beat expectations, but now all bets are off for a Fed cut in early 2007. This morning interest-rate futures rose, and some believe the FOMC may actually raise rates in the months ahead.
OPEC Ready to Take Action- Many have discounted the comments of OPEC in recent days as crude prices have fallen to a 19 month low. In recent days we have seen some panic selling as investors have jumped ship due to abnormally high temperatures, and a lack of action by OPEC.
Crude prices could hit $50/bbl or slightly lower, but the low PE's of many of the major integrateds are making the group a very attractive bet. OPEC will take serious action, its only a matter of time. As such, buying on bad news can be very rewarding especially given the longer term supply and demand issues facing the world. As the spring/summer months approach, Wall Street will want to own oil again.
National Association of Realtors say Housing Slump is over-All I can say is "Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire". Actually, what else would we expect them to say? As they say down south, "we have a dog in this hunt". After several years of making a fortune in commissions, the National Association of Realtors is getting a little edgy with the current slowdown.
While we may see a rebound in the coming months, the current real estate debacle seems far from over. Does anyone want to buy a waterfront condo where insurance costs are astronomical, and you can potentially get creamed by a hurricane? Well if you do, come on down.
The reality is, real estate prices are still very high. Since property taxes are based on the price you pay for a home or condo, paying $600,000- $1,000,000 for a property can quickly put you in the poor house.
A friend of mine here in Florida (who does not live on the water) just received his insurance bill for 2007. For a 4500 square foot home, his insurance is going to cost him $24,000 for the year. Yes, I said $24,000. Anyone want to move to Florida? The costs are astronomical but the orange juice is great!
Despite the woes here in Florida, I would not be surprised to see a very sharp rally in the homebuilders this spring. Since real estate usually goes through multi-year corrections, occasional sharp rallies do occur.
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