Ok contrarian's, I was watching CNBC as I ate breakfast at 10am, and I couldn't resist Liz Claman's giddiness about the Dow only being a few points away from a new all time closing high. CNBC even put a banner on our screen to keep a tick by tick total of how many points the Dow had to go.

While I am happy to see the Dow near record highs, this one index certainly does not signal a healthy rally. So, what can cause the market to correct in October?

1) In a flight to safety (Usually not a good sign of things to come), the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has dropped 70 basis points to bring the yield down to 4.55%. We can speculate that this drop in yields has occurred in-line with the sell-off in the metals/energy markets.

Now that the "hot money" has rotated out of the metal and energy sectors, the bond market is sending us signals that a potentially sharp economic slowdown may be on the horizon. Whenever the markets sense danger, it tends to seek a safe haven.

Since the market does not want its moves to be too obvious, I wouldn't be surprised to see a sell-off in bonds in the weeks ahead. This rise in bond yields (though temporary) will be one of the backdrops for profit taking in the stock market.