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Market, Economy, And Bernanke In A Catch 22
Posted on 03/29/2007 09:03 AM | Link | Post Comment
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A Catch 22 situation is one in which (def; Wikipedia) "a situation an individual has to accomplish two actions which are mutually dependent on the other action being completed first. Catch 22 situations are sometimes called the chicken or the egg problems."
As far as the Market, Economy and Bernake are concerned, how the current problems are handled will have dramatic implications for the stock market.
For example;
Yesterday, Bernanke said that the US economy is "slowing", and "inflation" is "rising". Whoa! This sounds like the 1970's all over again. Here's the way I see it;
1) If the fed cuts rates, inflation will rise, and the dollar will fall.
2) If the fed raises rates, home borrowers with Adjustable Rate Mortgages will be injected with a fatal dose of financial lethal injections to their ARM's.
Yesterday, Bernanke said that consumers with Adjustable Rate Mortgages "could refinance". But, can they really? The problem is that many home-borrowers are saddled with debt, and could not come up with the minimum down payment for a conventional mortgage. Also, over the past two years, new home purchases were made at the top of the market.
When a new appraisal is ordered by the lender, housing values will be lower than they were 1-2 years ago. This means that in addition to the down payment, the borrower has to bring to closing the difference between the amount owed (original purchase price), and the new appraised price (if any).
In 2005, I began warning investors about the eventual collapse of the real estate market. In an article entitled "It's a Left Hook!" I said;
The uppercut (not expected until 2006-2007), and final knockout punch, will happen when real estate speculators begin to run for the exits, and attempt to unload their speculative real estate before their properties come up for closing. This running for the exits may be due to a spike up in longer term interest rates and a simultaneous unwinding of leveraged Treasury Bond positions held by hedge funds.
Here are a some more warnings that I issued before the real estate situation got worse;
- Get A Job, Any Job, To Pay The Rent!
- Countrywide Financial's Ceo Warns Investors
- What The Dell !
- Making Money From Consumer Fascinations
- Market, Economy, And Bernanke In A Catch 22
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