I'm sure if you've been listening to or reading any of the financial news over the past 12 months, you've heard about the inverted yield curve, and how when it's inverted it could negatively affect the economy.  You've probably also heard each analyst say, "This time it's different."

As of yesterday's close, the 90 day yield curve was -.23, giving us a 31.5% chance a recession.  But if you look at the 15 day, 5 day, and daily curve, you'll see a differential of -.44, -.49, and -.52, respectively.  These numbers tell us the 90 day average is headed for an even deeper inversion.  At -.52, there's about a 40% chance of a recession.

The last time the 90 day yield curve was at -.23 was on October 16, 2000.  The 15 day, 5 day, and daily differences were -.40, -.48, and -.54, respectively.  The economy went into a recession in March 2001.