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Gualberto Diaz

The Art of Money

China And Goods And Vix… Oh My

Posted on 02/27/2007 14:55 PM | Link | Post Comment

It's been a bloodbath today.  Everything on my screen is red.  Started last night in China and continued all the way to New York this morning.  Apparently the Chinese government made a commitment to curb speculation in it's equity market, which has been on fire since late 2005.  Is it possible that Alan Greenspan's speech last night may have perhaps triggered the sell off?  It's very possible.  When I got to my desk, the QQQQ was already down 1 point from yesterday's close.

Add to that the durable goods number that came in a -7.8%, when the Street was expecting -3%, and we've got a correction starting to take shape.  So it looks like the US economy is weaker than many had thought.  Home sales were up, but there is alot of data that is coming out this week.

The Vix finally jumped up today, about 50%.  This correlates with the theory I read that after periods of extreme low volatility, a move to higher volatility will usually mean price movement to the downside.  Will there be more to come?  I guess that all depends what the economic outlook is for the US going forward, and what the Fed decides to do about it.

The volume today has been truly amazing.  This is the most volume that the QQQQ has seen in at least the last year and a half, if not more.  Massive amounts of selling pressure.  I believe the NYSE trading collars were either triggered or almost triggered today.

All in all, it was amazing to watch the markets in action today.  My QID position is about 7% today, even as the Q is trading off it's lows.  Looking at the chart, there has been support in the 43.50 range, which it broke through, and even past the 100 day moving average for a couple of minutes.  I think this breakdown of support could be the key to a reversal in the market trends.  We shall see.

Regardless, it's very exciting to watch.

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