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Financial SkepticAccentuating the caveat emptor with critical commentary concerning investor relations and financial communications. I look at how information is (mis)managed and manipulated thereby creating possible investors losses. |
Apple May Not Morph From Hype To Earnings
Posted on 06/29/2007 10:50:12 | Link | Post Comment
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) will finally release the new iphone. Some stores already have huge line ups for this evenings release. Apple has created such expectations with the hype it now has two significant problems. Firstly marketing and branding. Secondly financial. Let me explain.
In the marketing/branding context consider this law of physics. To each action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Because the Apple hype has become a pop culture event of its own there will be an equal and opposite pop culture reaction which may not be adhering to the intended Apple script.
The entire early adopter frenzy may look slavish and mindless in its cult like frenzy. The entire alternative culture (Those who prefer to independently think on their own) will blow back shortly. I predict the tipping point will appear on youTube shortly after the iphone sales start with someone purchasing an iphone and then destroying it in some creative and angry fashion.
Just as the Tribe of Apple will think it is very cool to own an iphone. The Tribe of Not Apple will think its more cool to have not been manipulated and not own the iphone. The ongoing marketing will be very tough and the iphone may become another Apple cult product with a small market share.
The second problem is financial. Will the iphone sales/hype result in something of value for the shareholders? The July 25 Apple earnings announcement will be very interesting as the finance guys attempt to explain why the hype has not converted into tangible results.
Apple shares rose north of $100 late April on their way to the current levels of around $120. RSI peaked close to 100 in early May and has declined rapidly to 50 while the stock price is appreciating. Buckle up the roller coaster is going for that big and exciting dip.
In the marketing/branding context consider this law of physics. To each action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Because the Apple hype has become a pop culture event of its own there will be an equal and opposite pop culture reaction which may not be adhering to the intended Apple script.
The entire early adopter frenzy may look slavish and mindless in its cult like frenzy. The entire alternative culture (Those who prefer to independently think on their own) will blow back shortly. I predict the tipping point will appear on youTube shortly after the iphone sales start with someone purchasing an iphone and then destroying it in some creative and angry fashion.
Just as the Tribe of Apple will think it is very cool to own an iphone. The Tribe of Not Apple will think its more cool to have not been manipulated and not own the iphone. The ongoing marketing will be very tough and the iphone may become another Apple cult product with a small market share.
The second problem is financial. Will the iphone sales/hype result in something of value for the shareholders? The July 25 Apple earnings announcement will be very interesting as the finance guys attempt to explain why the hype has not converted into tangible results.
Apple shares rose north of $100 late April on their way to the current levels of around $120. RSI peaked close to 100 in early May and has declined rapidly to 50 while the stock price is appreciating. Buckle up the roller coaster is going for that big and exciting dip.
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