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I am an independent real estate broker, focused on the residential real estate market in downtown Boston.

Are The Young (relatively) Abandoning Boston?

Posted on 11/28/2006 12:21 PM | Link | Post Comment

A hot topic over the past several years is whether or not Boston is losing its young urban professionals, or "Yurbies", as they're commonly called. More importantly, the question is, why? (Readers of this blog will remember I answered this question, by stating, "Because that's what young people do ... they move.")

Data supporting the assertion that people in the 25-34 age group are moving out of Boston (and other high-housing price markets such as Manhattan and San Francisco) is apocryphal, at best, and examples, anecdotal.

Let me try to figure out if there is any truth to the claim.

In yesterday's Globe, there was an article describing the restaurants opening at the new InterContinental hotel and residences, on the Waterfront.

Boston is a good place for InterContinental to roll out its first wave of properties aimed at a younger audience. The Hub has among the highest percentages of 20-somethings within its population &8212; 23 percent &8212; of urban areas nationwide.

Well, that is probably a fact. Of course, we'd need to see a drop, between two dates, in the percentage of people living in Boston.

Conveniently, I found this story in the Times (syndicated elsewhere) discussing the migration of 25-34 year olds. It quotes a study done by the Metro Atlanta Chamber of Commerce.

Cities have long competed over job growth, struggling to revive their downtowns and improve their image. But the latest population trends have forced them to fight for college-educated 25- to 34-year-olds, a demographic group increasingly viewed as the key to an economic future.

Mobile but not flighty, fresh but technologically savvy, “the young and restless,” as demographers call them, are at their most desirable age, particularly because their chances of relocating drop precipitously when they turn 35. Cities that do not attract them now will be hurting in a decade.

How is Boston doing?

In addition to Atlanta, the biggest gainers in market share of the young and restless were San Francisco; Denver; Portland; and Austin, Texas. The biggest losers were Washington, Philadelphia, Boston, New York and Los Angeles.

(*** As local blogger John Daley found out, The New York Times article left out "Boston" in its list of losers, oddly, while a syndicated version does include it. Hmmm. Is there a Boston Globe connection in there?)

Where are young people moving?

The Chamber of Commerce study concludes that Atlanta, Georgia outpaced every other major American city in attracting the highly coveted 25-34 year old young professional.

The reasons are widespread. Affordable housing was listed by many in the focus groups, as were cultural opportunities, jobs, and access to major forms of transportation.

In addition, Atlanta draws many African-Americans from other parts of the country, presumably because they find the city to be welcoming to people of similar backgrounds.

Other cities are popular with those looking for arts and entertainment, job opportunities, lots of single people, etc.

And, Charlotte, North Carolina?

Tony Crumbley, the vice president for research, said the city and state had done a lot of things right without realizing it, like establishing liberal banking laws that made Charlotte a financial capital, and redeveloping downtown in the 1980s.

“Another thing,” Mr. Crumbley said, “there are more Frisbee golf courses in this area than any other place in the country.”

Um, yeah.

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