Shift in leadership to more downside capitulation developing? One can often discern what is happening in the market by closely watching what is happening in our long-short strategy.  Since our last update, two of our longs were stopped out on break-even trailing stops (AGU and MON), o ... Read more

Watch relative yield curves for bank performance clues Since our last update the markets turned down below suggested support zones to watch on strong volume and breadth and now have a clear downward bias that confirms that our suspicion about the rally since mid-March being only a bear mar ... Read more

Wait for market verdicts to clarify. We've been discussing a number of markets at unresolved critical points.  Some of those are starting to resolve, but most have not yet.  Let's therefore wait until the market's verdict is clear before discerning where things are likely going c ... Read more

Bond Major Trend Shift Wreaking Some Havoc? Last week we discussed how important the action in bonds and TLT's was to watch.  Today bonds fell under the critical 89.6 support level in the morning and nearly closed below this support.  The bond action is already starting to wreak ... Read more

Bear Rally in Stocks Over? Last week we discussed the important juncture the market was at, and we have repeatedly commented on the sub-par breadth and volume of the rally in the S&P and suggested that a bear market rally was taking place.  Since then the major averages tested the ... Read more

Critical Time for Stocks and Bonds? Every so often markets reach important tipping points where substantial breadth and volume action in either direction are likely to portend more action in that direction.  I suspect we are at such points in both stock and bond markets now. Bonds ... Read more

Currency Watch We have been waiting for some time for a period of a week (5 trading days) or longer when our Top RS/EPS New Highs list outpaces our Bottom RS/EPS New Lows list by 40, which would usher in a good environment for adding long exposure more aggressively.  As our chart at t ... Read more

Leadership and Breadth Improving The market continues to be a bit wild.  First we got a 90% down day that made the test of 1306-1322 (Fibo support) critical.  Then that support held and we got a valid Follow-through day yet again on the upside accompanied by EURJPY breaking out to ... Read more

Some leadership breakouts and laggards emerging slowly The market is setting up for a test of the first important resistance level since this rally began in mid March.  Chart 1 shows the S&P and the critical 1395-1405 resistance level that represents the February highs an ... Read more

Light Participation Amidst Light Leadership We got yet another 90% up-day as the market moved through 1350 and 50 day ma resistance, helping to confirm the likelihood of at least a bear-market rally to the 1400-1455 zone that we've been talking about for weeks.  Yet despite t ... Read more