One of the reasons sell-side analysts on Wall Street are usually pretty bad at picking stocks is because they are reactionary, not anticipatory. Remember, the market is forward-looking, so what already happened is irrelevant. Here we are, in a recession, and by most accounts the economy will stay ... Read more

The forced selling and mass liquidations are continuing, with the pre-market futures trading limit down this morning. October has always been the most volatile month of the year, and investment fund fiscal years end a week from today (as opposed to a normal December year-end). Don't fool yourself ... Read more

I closed out the Apple (AAPL) position in my blog model portfolio in August at more than $180 per share after a 52% gain and also trimmed my clients' AAPL holdings at that time, but after the stock has been beaten up in the latest sell-off, searching for a re-entry point seems like a worthy endeav ... Read more

A few months back we had people calling for $150 and $200 oil, but now many people are saying $50 or $60 is not only possible, but likely. What a difference hedge fund liquidations and a recession can make. Is the oil bull market over, or just put on hold due to an impending global recession? My bes ... Read more

We have seen crude oil prices fall 50% from $150 to $75 per barrel. Aside from Southwest Airlines (LUV), my preferred air carrier for many years (for traveling, not investing), the other airlines missed the boat on hedging fuel costs and paid the price as the oil spike wiped away their profits after ... Read more

Warren Buffett's Op-Ed in the New York Times today is a must read. He echoes many of the same thoughts I offered in my quarterly letter to clients last week, but don't take it from me, the Oracle of Omaha feels the same way. You can read the full piece here : Some highlights: In the near term ... Read more

During the last bear market (2000-2002) there were dozens of situations where individual stock valuations looked down right silly. This bear market will be no different, and long term value-oriented investors can take advantage of the fact that in times like these numerous bargains can be had, but m ... Read more

The Associated Press has done just that. The dictionary definition of plunge is "to descend abruptly or precipitously." If you had any doubt that some in the media are making the economic situation sound as dire as possible, consider the following headline: Retail sales plunge 1.2 percent in Septem ... Read more

Much of the recent market decline has been due to forced sellers like hedge fund and mutual fund managers that have had no choice but to sell stocks they own due to redemption notices from their panicked investors. In many cases, forced selling has also taken the form of margin calls. Consider the ... Read more

There is no right answer, since we have no idea ahead of time, but looking at the biggest S&P 500 declines over the last 35 years can shed some light on what would be typical for a deep decline. Some pretty interesting similarities here. I will update this chart as times ... Read more