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by Andrew Vaino



This coming week promises to see some fun volatility as Hollis Eden’s (HEPH) “tentative date” for an award under Project Bioshield on March 7th approaches. As I’ve mentioned, I think this company has a weak pipeline (loads of preclinical studies, but, according to the FDA [clinicaltrials.gov], nothing currently in Phase 2) and sinks or swims based on this award.

Now, this stock didn’t move as I though it would after announcing the January 31 “tentative contract” award date had been pushed back to March 7. I wrote in the Newsletter the week before January 31, that open interest on February options was very low, while open interest on March options was decent. Open interest on March options remains acceptable (not high, it’s a nano cap stock after all), and open interest on April options is negligible. I think this portends a strong move one way or the other.

As I mentioned last month, my bet is on no contract and I bought March 7.5 puts (QGQ OU). For low price volatile shorts I think the safety of options, as opposed to outright shorting, is worth the premium. To be clear, this is highly speculative. We’ll see if I’m right next week. In any case, as with past “tentative award” dates last January, November, and September, there will be some fun volatility for day traders.



RELATED READING:
- Government Contract Could Set Hollis-Eden Stock Soaring
- Project BioShield Has Given Biotechs Little Motivation to Protect Americans
- Three Biotech Drugs Have Potential to Treat Polonium-210 Radiation
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