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by Michael Shulman
BiotechBlitz



As I have written before, I get more e-mail about Amgen (AMGN) than any other biotech. No wonder -- lousy stock, lousier company. The company is more of a Short than a Buy due to problems in its core anemia drugs. I wrote about it just a few days ago. That diatribe focused on the Congressional Black Caucus and may have obscured the essential truth about Amgen: The company is just about to start taking serious hits due to new reimbursement guidelines.

I'm writing about this again today because I hear more and more analysts who are only marginally acquainted with the company talking “value” -- but there is no value here unless you play the short side.

Anemia drugs are more than 60% of AMGN's sales and I estimate 80% of profits and sales will slow, stagnate and eventually slide within four quarters. It has no blockbusters on the near- or mid-term horizon -- at least five years -- and has not produced a blockbuster on its own since 1991. That was the year Gorbachev dissolved the Soviet Union -- a long time ago and there was a different George Bush -- oh so different -- in the White House.

So stop e-mailing about Amgen. E-mail me about something else and stay away from AMGN.

If you want a recap on the Medicare issue, check out Mike Huckman’s blog at http://www.cnbc.com/id/15837675. He is THE pharma and biotech reporter for CNBC and, as the husband of a journalist who has won every award one can win, Mike knows his stuff. His blog will keep you fresh.




BiotechBlitz is a regular contributor to BioHealth Investor
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