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Biiwii.com NotesMacro-economic, market and trading notes including charts, fundamental opinions and any off-topic rambling I may lapse into. Commentary about trading is made assuming readers have already considered the importance of de-leveraging from debt and owning things of value as opposed to paper promises. Individual stocks may be presented here that we may have positions in. No recommendations are implied. See "About & Terms" on Biiwii.com website. |
Gold-oil Ratio: Continues To Be Bullish
Posted on 07/09/2008 03:53:46 | Link | Post Comment
The Gold-Oil Ratio (GOR) does not necessarily indicate gold is bullish in nominal Dollar terms - although I believe it is. The GOR simply says that the risk vs. reward ratio for gold is superior to that of oil. The black goopy stuff can continue to the upside - although I don't think it has significant upside - but if the GOR is indeed bottoming, it will not do so without gold outperforming. Likewise, if they both drop in a Deflate-o-rama scare, gold will likely fair much better. This makes sense because the media's neatly packaged 'credit crisis' is returning to the fore - and is that the Suzy Ormand cartoon I see on CNBC in Fast Money's [LOL] time slot? People are beginning to scurry all over the deck again. They will run to cash and gold and might actually begin to question what have been their anti-Dollar safety blankets, the Euro and Oil. Neither of which stand to do so well in a global economic contraction. Oil is over bought to epic proportions. But here is the disclaimer; I have been a damn lousy oil caller for years now, as you may know. ;-) BTW, I just noticed on the chart under the 'ROC' sub-panel, I wrote Rate of chance bullish divergence. That is obviously 'Rate of CHANGE' although this whole enchilada is basically a play on chances, isn't it?
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