The Summation Index associated with the McClellan Oscillator indicates a substantial move is coming in the market.  Since 1996 when the Summation Index has transitioned from a positive value to a reading of -1000 or below this has led to a substantial move in the market.   Keep in mind this is a very rare occurrence and has only happened 9 times previous to today's signal on 7/1/08.

The table below shows all of the signals going back to 1996 in which the Summation Index transitioned from a positive value to a reading of -1000 or below and what occurred in the SPY over the next 7 to 18 trading days.

Signal	Closing	Low/	of	% Gain/
Date	Price	High	Days	Loss
7/1/2008	128.38	?	?	?
11/21/2007	141.68	152.89	13	7.9
8/7/2007	147.77	137.25	7	-7.1
5/11/2004	109.46	114.57	18	4.7
7/18/2002	87.45	77.33	4	-11.6
9/26/2001	101.04	110.80	14	9.7
10/23/2000	140.18	133.65	3	-4.7
8/12/1999	129.79	138.43	8	6.7
3/1/1999	123.56	132.27	13	7.0
8/5/1998	108.12	93.28	18	-13.7

The last signal occurred on 11/21/07 which was followed by a gain of nearly 8% in the SPY within 13 trading days.  However back on 8/7/07 the SPY lost 7% within 7 trading days.   The other signals dating back to 1998 had gains of 4.7% in 18 trading days (2004),  9.7% in 14 trading days (2001), 6.7% in 8 trading days (1999) and 7.0% in 13 trading days (1999).   Meanwhile losses were -11.6% over 4 trading days in 2002,
-4.7% in 3 tradings days (2000) and -13.7% within 18 trading days (1998). 

Thus it's very likely there is going to be a substantial move in the market over the next week or two in one direction or the other.  Of course the big question is which direction it will go?

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Bob
Amateur-Investor.Net