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US Dollar Takes a Beating

Posted on 09/25/2006 16:41:34 | Link | Post Comment

Happy 91st Birthday to our most revered subscriber. May she live to be 100 and beyond. According to a report aired last night, they see our potential lifespans stretching out to 150 years, even within this Century as medical breakthroughs and improvements in technology continue to occur. Meanwhile, our Trillion Dollar Killing Revisited theme looks to be starting to work as the US Dollar weakens and Gold and Silver rally again, but while the Dollar on one hand is lowering the value of US based assets, the weaker than expected news on the economy yesterday is sending Bond prices sharply higher and long term interest rate yields sharply lower, giving Bond investors a huge break and this in of itself, we believe will soon compel the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates soon, possibly right after the election and that could still foment a year end rally and set us up for what we believe will be a phenomenal 2007 In the meantime, the market action yesterday was symptomatic of a turning point and therefore today's outcome will have important repercussions for the rest of the month and perhaps even the next quarter. The big question is: Can lower bond market yields continue to boost stocks? Remember that the lower rates go, the more stocks can rally and so this scenario could become the increasingly dominant theme going forward and a weaker US Dollar, whilst it may be a short term negative, could actually help stocks greatly in the weeks and months ahead, just as occurred in 2004 and of course we also have a strongly recovering tech sector where numerous issues are now making new multi-year highs in many cases in a stealth bull market of sorts that appears to be gaining momentum. It even feels reminiscent of 1999, where in this same month, tech issues were just getting warmed up for what turned out to be a sensational fourth quarter. Along the same lines, October 1999 was a huge month for Gold and Silver stocks and we believe this October could prove similar on the back of a weaker US Dollar and recovering metals prices.  

Trade Well
From the Desk of Savant

(published 09/22/06)

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