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The Next Five Years
We actually had wanted to write: "The Next Five Years" yesterday, but due to time constraints were unable to do so and a very fitting day it turned out to be in what may be the opening salvo of the next five years... Considering the awful abyss we had to climb out of in the week following 9/11, it has certainly turned out to be an epic recovery and unprecedented 5 years in economic and market history.
The data we published on Monday, really said it all about how strong the economic fundamentals are and pay tribute to the fact that this is really still, the best economy ever, even if the edge has been shaved off some of late. Of course we have to guard against complacency and over-optimism, but Monday's rally that continued into yesterday, was perhaps one more of defiance and the realization deep down, that with the fact that we have gone five years without an attack on US Territories, we are making a lot of progress in the War on Terror, even if there have been disappointments along the way. But perhaps also, the markets impressive performance was further supported by the backdrop of a growing realization, that the hydrogen age is coming and that self-sufficiency is no longer a fantasy. And thanks to recent monumental oil discoveries it's going to buy the time needed to make the transition away from traditional forms of hydrocarbon based energy supplies. And, yesterday, with GM unveiling what looks to be an immediate, if not sure-fire winner in the latest form of its first real Hydro-Electric hydrogen powered vehicle, the realization that change is coming was further endorsed by BMW's announcement of commercial hydrogen limousines.
The Next Five Years are likely to be driven by technological transformation as never before and a large part of that may come from the huge transition that we believe will occur in the transportation industry, that could be a massive job creator and industry booster down the road. Also, the next generation of Internet, Ultra-Speed processors and Microsoft Vista, is also likely to drive a dynamic new growth cycle that in of itself could render all previous generational computers obsolete and as such a massive upgrade cycle could be the tech boom to end all tech booms that in some respects could dwarf the 2000 Tech Boom certainly in terms of numbers of computers now being produced around the World that will be without precedent and given that some computers now cost 1/10th of their predecessors with many times their power, the potential to bring computing affordability to almost every corner of the Globe, is going to mean multi-billion demand for new computers. Since we believe our 45 ~ 50 year bull market idea is intact and even could be entering an extended Fifth Wave Super-Cycle, we feel this cycle could continue right into 2018, or around the time that Moore's Law has reached its limits in terms of computing processor abilities. The boom could then further be extended by a new generation of nano-technologies, that could be the logical progression soon thereafter... The pace of change, expected continued growth in China, India and other major emerging economies is likely to continue unrestrained into the next decade and that could keep the economic engines of the major industrial economies chugging along to deliver their infrastructures. Since World War II, we have had everything and the kitchen sink thrown at the US Economy and it has continued to prevail as never before. Trade Well From the Desk of Savant (published 9/13/06)
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Why I traded the stock ME today. I had it on my list fr [read more]
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