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The snorting and stamping of hooves on Wall Street would have me believe it was summer in Pamplona. Ever been to Pamplona?

A rocket goes off at the moment the bulls are let out into the street. A second rocket goes off to let everyone know that all the bulls are now in the street.
(sound familiar?)

This is the moment of truth in the Bull-Running : the bulls run like the very devil. It´s impossible to race them or even keep up with them for very long (interesting information for anyone with athletic pretensions) : The way to do it is, to start off slowly when the bulls are still a good distance behind, and as they draw nearer start running like the devil, before they get too close, hang in near them for a short time, as near as you are prepared to risk your skin, and then get out of the way as cleanly as possible. Be careful not to cross the paths of other runners. Look for a gap in the fence to slip through or jump over, or a space against the wall of the street.

As well as the danger inherent in running in front of a bull, it's worth remembering that this is an animal which weights about 600 kilos - some 120 stone - and which has two big rock-hard horns which can cut through practically anything, not to mention possible bruising from just being stepped on, there is also the problem of overcrowding in the run. So you have to be careful not to get bowled over or knocked down by other runners. The crowding is particularly dense at the weekends where the number of visitors to the Fiesta more than doubles.

Once the bulls have gone past, the run has finished for you and you feel a special satisfaction and relief that nothing has happened to you. That is, as long as a bull doesn't turn back when it gets separated from the others - something which does happen from time to time and which creates a potentially highly dangerous situation. When you hear a third rocket go off it is to let you know that all the bulls have arrived inside the ring and a fourth and final rocket is sent off when all the bulls have been safely led into their pens.

Between that first rocket and final rocket only a couple of minutes (hours in our case) will normally have gone by - but what a couple of minutes !

Well, that's what the running of the bulls is all about. So if you have been up all night, think carefully about what is the best thing for you to do at that decisive moment - to drag your tired body off of the bed, and take the risk of running, or to find a safe place to watch the run from behind the fences. (now re-read this in the context of Wall Street) Erie isn't it?

I am optimistically bullish for the possibilities tomorrow, but then, so is the rest of the world. Focus on capital preservation, i.e. not losing your seed, and you'll always have a harvest. Eventually...................

Real Estate / Bubble-licious?
How much Real Estate is in your portfolio? You may want to take inventory, and reassess your goals. Is there a "We Buy Ugly Houses" billboard on your drive to work? Or 3? Maybe 10? Why is that? I read Ugly, not as it needs a new roof and paint, but more like; "My ARM just kicked in and I've never been very good at budgeting anyway and the Sheriff just tacked a note on my door, and man, this is getting really UGLY". Get the drift? More than one somebody is heavily positioning themselves in every major city in the country to scoop up the ever increasing number of foreclosures.

Historically low interest rates have allowed more American's to buy the American Dream in the past few years than ever before. Cash was so abundant, and so cheap, even the guy who couldn't budget his rent money and had a string of eviction notices suddenly qualified for the white picket fence. OK, so why does that affect me and my real estate holdings? When the dollar store opens across from Walgreen's, how much revenue do they lose? A lot! Let 3 houses on your street go into foreclosure, have an agent run the comps, and tell me how much the median price for a home in your exclusive neighborhood just dropped. I'm not saying sell it all, just take a look at what you own, why you own it, and what you're looking to accomplish and in what time frame.

We tend to take our economic read from Capitol Hill and Wall Street. Those guys have a LOT of money. Your money. Therefore, if things turn sour, they're the last to know and by the time the next Beige Book comes out, you could be living in a trailer.

If you want to know where the economy is really headed, put away the Wall Street Journal. Go find a copy of the Mcduffie Progress (my hometown) or any Small-town USA newspaper. The backbone of this country has always been, the heartland, the farmland, Lester and Thelma's backyard.
(I have relatives named Lester and Thelma so I'm allowed to say that.) That's where economic tremors begin and ultimately, end.

Sobering thoughts, and just one more reason why we work so hard to keep you ahead of the herd.



Tomorrow - The Next Big Boom / Retirement



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