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S&P 400 MidCap Poised for New All Time Record Highs Part 2
Posted on 09/25/2006 16:38:39 | Link | Post Comment
As we have pointed out before, when the investment pyramid is inverted, as it is now and the base or multitude of stocks are making new highs, the outlook for stocks is likely to remain strong for some time to come. It is when the pyramid is right side up and the last remnants of the Dow Jones Industrials or Generals are making new highs, as represented by the Apex of the Pyramid that the market is vulnerable to a collapse. Some have likened this to a battle with lower cap issues or foot-soldiers, as represented by the very broadest indices that are now healthy and progressing to new highs, that the bull market lifespan has legs. The addition of Ben Bernanke to this bull market, has definitely given it extra-long legs, ever since he was chosen to succeed Alan Greenspan.
As we reported days later: Since that day, there appears to have been a sea-change in sentiment and we did rate Dr Bernanke very highly indeed as a probable 10 and maybe even a Perfect 10 for now, and the market seems to have endorsed our views over recent days with its relentless upward performance, as we also reasoned that this unfolding Bernanke Bull move could run as long as 2 or 3 quarters hence. We also made the case for how strong the Global economy has been and how the outlook continues to improve as evidenced by the resumption of the parabolic uptrends in Japan's Nikkei 225, the Bombay Sensex, the Brazilian Bovespa and even Mexico's IPC Index that has been almost unrestrainable, rebounding to just shy of its own all time record highs 16,120.08.
We likened the World economy of 200 plus countries as being like a train with some 200 or so cars being pulled forward by the leading economic engines of the US, China, India with the refurbished engines of Japan and Germany joining in, along with what are now the new G12 all with their Trillion plus economies and all pulling, unified in unprecedented synchronized Global expansion, that regardless of rising rates, is a very long term powerful trend that could last for decades and on that note we have made a very strong case previously, to understand where we are in the big picture, comparing our current era of dynamic growth with a similar era that propelled the Dow Jones Industrial Average up almost 1000% from 1903 over the next quarter century, in the sweet spot of the 50 year span of the Industrial Revolution, to where we are today in the sweet spot of the 50 year Technological Revolution that adhering to Moore's Law, should run till at least 2018 and is the thesis of our 40 ~ 50 year bull market theory evolving from the mid 70's lows.
We have also drawn our readers attention to the Nostalgic 50's as a time that emulates our own low interest rate era of the present, pointing out how a low interest rate period extended nearly 20 years and fomented a major era of US economic growth and we have also recounted the similarities to September 1955, when the Dow Jones Industrials took off on what turned out to be a near 50 fold upside gain over the next 45 years and we earnestly believe that we are at a similar lift-off point today, as evidenced by the very fact that the Dow Jones Transportation Index just set new all time records and even more importantly by the very broadest markets of the US blazing the way to new highs and the even broader indices as represented by many emerging nations around the World now demonstrating a Deja Vu move, that just as is reflective of a Golden era of the past, we are re-living today as a Global era of growth.
While it is hard to imagine a Dow Jones of 15,000 ~ 20,000 or more ahead, let alone 100,000, we believe those numbers will in fact be achieved sooner than many foresee, in fact, if we emulate the 20th Century's first thirty years we could be there before 2030. But we have come up with an even more bullish twist potentially, that for us, already predicted some time back, sees the Nikkei 225 as high as 20,000 before 2010 and at new all time record highs or 40,000 plus before 2020 and like the Dow at 100,000 plus by 2030.
There are many reasons for this that we will go into in more depth on a future occasion, but the most glaring reason currently being, how skillfully Japan has pulled off a Deja Vu from the first Oil price shocks of the 1970's, when they introduced gasoline efficient sub-compacts to counter The Big 3's old gas guzzling clunkers and started taking serious market share from the majors, to the scary prospect of today, where The Big 3 are yielding market share at an alarming rate of 25% plus in just 5 years.That's 5% per year to Japanese automakers, who are once again at the vanguard of addressing the current energy crisis, providing attractive alternatives, if not longer term solutions, which are most surely on the drawing board. Add the that the 3 Billion Asian market of rapidly growing a lot richer consumers and Japan's longer term destiny has to look highly desirable to fund managers and investors Worldwide. We also believe there is one added plus in this new Century that may have so far been overlooked and that is, as the World grows richer as it has done so dramatically and universally in recent years, the capacity to make money faster and grow much more rapidly than ever before through new inventions and technological advances and playing catch-up faster to the industrialized World, is personified by China's 9% compounded hyper-growth for a reported 28 years straight and living testimony to not only this, but our theory that the stock market growth over the past 3 centuries is actually occurring at an exponentially increasing rate, that in simple terms, if the 19th Century's growth is measured as a 1, the 20th Century a 3, then the 21st Century projects a 9, and in qualification of this idea, the average growth rate of 3% seems to make sense for much of the 20th Century and yet in defying the laws of gravity and seemingly against almost impossible odds from where it was in 1972 with the first opening up of China, it has already leapt ahead of everyone else, by proving that it can adhere to our projected 21st Century growth factor of 9. This theory seems to also make sense when applied to the markets, although much of the data from the 19th Century may be hard to measure, but roughly speaking, if the 19th Century was measured at 100 fold and the 20th Century as 300 fold, the 1903 low of 41 x 300 equates to Dow 12,300 close enough to the actual high of the Century at 11,750. Then, taking the 2002 low at 7197.49 x 900 might be beyond extreme, but the 20th Century multiplier at least puts us over 2 Million plus and since Sir John Templeton predicted a Million a while back, 2 Million may not sound so extreme...
Notwithstanding, whether it's the stunning rise of Russia over the past seven years or the spectacular 9% hyper-growth that has personified the Chinese economy for 28 years straight is living testimony to this theory and sets the bar very high for other countries including the US to emulate: An enviable statistic for all that hopefully has not been lost on our newly crowned Fed Chair appointee.
As we reported days later: Since that day, there appears to have been a sea-change in sentiment and we did rate Dr Bernanke very highly indeed as a probable 10 and maybe even a Perfect 10 for now, and the market seems to have endorsed our views over recent days with its relentless upward performance, as we also reasoned that this unfolding Bernanke Bull move could run as long as 2 or 3 quarters hence. We also made the case for how strong the Global economy has been and how the outlook continues to improve as evidenced by the resumption of the parabolic uptrends in Japan's Nikkei 225, the Bombay Sensex, the Brazilian Bovespa and even Mexico's IPC Index that has been almost unrestrainable, rebounding to just shy of its own all time record highs 16,120.08.
We likened the World economy of 200 plus countries as being like a train with some 200 or so cars being pulled forward by the leading economic engines of the US, China, India with the refurbished engines of Japan and Germany joining in, along with what are now the new G12 all with their Trillion plus economies and all pulling, unified in unprecedented synchronized Global expansion, that regardless of rising rates, is a very long term powerful trend that could last for decades and on that note we have made a very strong case previously, to understand where we are in the big picture, comparing our current era of dynamic growth with a similar era that propelled the Dow Jones Industrial Average up almost 1000% from 1903 over the next quarter century, in the sweet spot of the 50 year span of the Industrial Revolution, to where we are today in the sweet spot of the 50 year Technological Revolution that adhering to Moore's Law, should run till at least 2018 and is the thesis of our 40 ~ 50 year bull market theory evolving from the mid 70's lows.
We have also drawn our readers attention to the Nostalgic 50's as a time that emulates our own low interest rate era of the present, pointing out how a low interest rate period extended nearly 20 years and fomented a major era of US economic growth and we have also recounted the similarities to September 1955, when the Dow Jones Industrials took off on what turned out to be a near 50 fold upside gain over the next 45 years and we earnestly believe that we are at a similar lift-off point today, as evidenced by the very fact that the Dow Jones Transportation Index just set new all time records and even more importantly by the very broadest markets of the US blazing the way to new highs and the even broader indices as represented by many emerging nations around the World now demonstrating a Deja Vu move, that just as is reflective of a Golden era of the past, we are re-living today as a Global era of growth.
While it is hard to imagine a Dow Jones of 15,000 ~ 20,000 or more ahead, let alone 100,000, we believe those numbers will in fact be achieved sooner than many foresee, in fact, if we emulate the 20th Century's first thirty years we could be there before 2030. But we have come up with an even more bullish twist potentially, that for us, already predicted some time back, sees the Nikkei 225 as high as 20,000 before 2010 and at new all time record highs or 40,000 plus before 2020 and like the Dow at 100,000 plus by 2030.
There are many reasons for this that we will go into in more depth on a future occasion, but the most glaring reason currently being, how skillfully Japan has pulled off a Deja Vu from the first Oil price shocks of the 1970's, when they introduced gasoline efficient sub-compacts to counter The Big 3's old gas guzzling clunkers and started taking serious market share from the majors, to the scary prospect of today, where The Big 3 are yielding market share at an alarming rate of 25% plus in just 5 years.That's 5% per year to Japanese automakers, who are once again at the vanguard of addressing the current energy crisis, providing attractive alternatives, if not longer term solutions, which are most surely on the drawing board. Add the that the 3 Billion Asian market of rapidly growing a lot richer consumers and Japan's longer term destiny has to look highly desirable to fund managers and investors Worldwide. We also believe there is one added plus in this new Century that may have so far been overlooked and that is, as the World grows richer as it has done so dramatically and universally in recent years, the capacity to make money faster and grow much more rapidly than ever before through new inventions and technological advances and playing catch-up faster to the industrialized World, is personified by China's 9% compounded hyper-growth for a reported 28 years straight and living testimony to not only this, but our theory that the stock market growth over the past 3 centuries is actually occurring at an exponentially increasing rate, that in simple terms, if the 19th Century's growth is measured as a 1, the 20th Century a 3, then the 21st Century projects a 9, and in qualification of this idea, the average growth rate of 3% seems to make sense for much of the 20th Century and yet in defying the laws of gravity and seemingly against almost impossible odds from where it was in 1972 with the first opening up of China, it has already leapt ahead of everyone else, by proving that it can adhere to our projected 21st Century growth factor of 9. This theory seems to also make sense when applied to the markets, although much of the data from the 19th Century may be hard to measure, but roughly speaking, if the 19th Century was measured at 100 fold and the 20th Century as 300 fold, the 1903 low of 41 x 300 equates to Dow 12,300 close enough to the actual high of the Century at 11,750. Then, taking the 2002 low at 7197.49 x 900 might be beyond extreme, but the 20th Century multiplier at least puts us over 2 Million plus and since Sir John Templeton predicted a Million a while back, 2 Million may not sound so extreme...
Notwithstanding, whether it's the stunning rise of Russia over the past seven years or the spectacular 9% hyper-growth that has personified the Chinese economy for 28 years straight is living testimony to this theory and sets the bar very high for other countries including the US to emulate: An enviable statistic for all that hopefully has not been lost on our newly crowned Fed Chair appointee.
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