Quantcast Gold & Silver on the Brink of a Breakout
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Gold & Silver on the Brink of a Breakout

Posted on 09/25/2006 16:38:38 | Link | Post Comment
Just as we reported the US Dollar stood poised for a breakdown going into Wednesday, this morning the US Dollar is once again heading down and the currencies now appear poised for a significant upside breakout, after testing their recent lows numerous times and each time coming back from the brink, they simply don't appear to want to break down and now could be re-setting their sights on testing the upside of this multi-month range that in the December Euro's case EUZ5, could see it heading towards 1.26 ~ 1.27 range in what would be a potential $4,000 ~ $5000 move per contract. Should this indeed occur, the Precious Metals would have a hard time restraining their enthusiasm for further upside and even as we write in the wee hours of Thursday morning, Platinum is now already leading the way higher approaching its highs for the year at $951 per oz and Palladium is way up there and poised to set new contract highs anytime, a normally very bullish omen, especially when those highs were registered in just over a year ago. Just like a stock hitting new 52 week highs, this is where we are at with precious metals at a seasonally very bullish time going into the end of the year, when metals are in a bull mode. Copper has also been racing higher of late, setting new all time records again in recent days. Over recent weeks we have commented occasionally on how for the first time in years, if not decades, most all of the metals groups are advancing higher in a unified and synchronized upward momentum, in a very similar way that the Energy Futures components did earlier this year, when they began moving relentlessly higher from Crude Oils low $40's range, with all contracts setting continuous new highs and eventually continuous new all time record highs. One could argue that the precious metals group relative to Crude Oil's breakout, in terms of Gold that breakout was at the $450 level and therefore, compared with where Crude Oil's breakout occurred at around $40 or even $45 basis December, it would appear there is considerable upside ahead for Gold, that on the same scale might take the price as high as 75% higher equating December Crude's high at $70.80 as to where Gold could go.

That would have Gold up around $785 or so, seemingly poised to challenge its former all time highs at $875, but we may have to wait a while longer for that. For several years now we have had an upside target range for Gold of between $480 ~ $600 and thus far, the low end range of our objectives was recently achieved and we have had hardly a $20 pullback from that level, in what so far has turned out to be what could end up being a very bullish consolidation or continuation pattern, with any upside breakout beyond this level likely to produce a very swift move through $500 per oz. Breaking through $500 will be a huge psychological barrier that is going to put Gold challenging $18 ~ 21 year highs and is likely to initiate massive short covering and an immense amount of buying and buy recommendations across the World. That could put Gold on a fast track to $550 and thereafter our high end range target of $600 could come into play. Beyond that may be too much to expect for now, other than to comment that once Gold and Silver and all the precious metals for that matter, get locked in parabolic uptrends, they can go a long long way, very rapidly indeed, so nothing can be ruled out for these metals and Copper is unlikely to be left behind on this go-round, with a target of anywhere from $2 ~ $5 lb.
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