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The New Global Standard for Wealth Creation

Emancipation of World Markets

Posted on 09/25/2006 16:41:16 | Link | Post Comment
Freed from the yoke of rising interest rates and the heavy burden and uncertainty of conflict, world markets were suddenly and deliberately liberated last week from many overwhelming worries bursting to life in one of their most bullish performances in some time.

Many pundits had anticipated a market selloff if the Fed paused on their maniacal rate hike binge, but not us. As readers will recall, we've consistently believed that the underlying strength in the economy would prevail, and that we are still poised for a very powerful mid-to-late decade liftoff beyond compare: So we went out on a limb just a week ago last Friday with our headline: "A New Bull Market in the Making" as we clearly were able to identify the very early signs of a new bull market unfolding and so far, its power and strength has been humbling.

There's an old saying: Nobody rings a bell at the start of a bull market, but we certainly were heralding this last Friday a week ago and we had been expounding upon this theme earlier this month on the possibility, if not probability, that a Super-Bullish Super-Cycle 5th Wave, could potentially begin at any time without warning and having seen how this past week already took most of Wall Street by surprise, we would not want to rule out the possibility that the big one has already begun and that there are some compelling reasons why we should pay great attention to unfolding events: In our earlier writings, we have explained the important relationships that anniversaries and dates can have on Wall St and we have also stressed the unique relationships that tend to manifest themselves between, 1st Waves, Third Waves and 5th Waves and this is mostly because Elliot Wave Theory is based a lot on market psychology and these 1, 3 and 5 impulse or upwaves, generally begin when there is a major psychological shift in market sentiment, when that market lever, literally can swing from extreme pessimism, or very bearish sentiment indeed, to sudden optimism or extreme bullishness overnight. The halting of rate hikes and cessation of hostilities certainly went a long way towards changing perceptions, but most were caught by the suddenness and decisiveness of change that actually began on late Friday August 07, when so quietly and almost insidiously, markets cut their losses in half in a late session stealth rally and we reiterated the massively important implications of this, such that the positive follow-thru Monday was palpable.

The significance of this action may have much greater underlying fundamentals than many may have been able to figure and that is really because 26 years ago this month, between the 12th and 17th of August, a new bull market of immense power and proportion was born and it grew into a double-decade back to back bull monster that became the greatest ever... And you know what? Throughout the 1980's and most of the 1990's, they would show that infamous date of August 17, 1982 over and over again with the NYSE's opening Bell's A-Ringing, such that it became emblazoned in our consciousness as the one time in the history of our generation, that they really did ring in a big bull.

That was an awesome week, because back then the Dow rose over 50 points or around 7% for the week and even though last week was not that large in percentage terms, it was the Nasdaq's largest move in 3 years since the bull market was just starting to get going in 2003.

And the good news may be, it's not over yet. Back in early 2003, with the first signs of $3 gasoline looming, many were perplexed as to how we could actually be at the beginning of a bull market with the economy being so bad, and we were reminded of The Great Depression in 1932, when the soup lines were at their longest: That was the time to be buying. But over the past week or two, while there have been signs of the worst statistics in 15 years in the housing markets, housing stocks actually rallied. Just take a look at NVR which we actually recommended on MODAR in the high 400's and amazingly closed the week at $500 plus. Down from $900 plus on the year, but emanating from a low of below $400, for a nice 25% ~ 30% return for those deft enough to take advantage. Investors really need to be buying in gloom.

In the larger scheme of things, there was a lot of gloom in August 1982 and there was a lot of gloom in early August 2006, perhaps even a compounding of gloom of sorts which is why it is so important to understand where we might be in the big picture of the 40 ~ 50 year super bull market that we may be only 2/3rds of the way through, that could even see new all time record highs in the Dow in the very near future and we could be witnessing the beginning of a run that could take us all the way through 2018, powered by 'Moore's Law' all the way there. 

The past few years have been a series of B waves and 3 - 4 corrections, counterbalancing the major 1 - 2 impulse waves of the 1980's and the very fact that this emerging "New Bull Market in the Making", unfolded around the exact same dates, may be no accident and because of the relation between the 1st and 5th Wave of a Super Bull Market, this relationship: "Should in no way be underestimated". In fact, last week famed floor trader, Jack Bouroudjian of Brewer Investment Group, who had been an admitted bear all year, suddenly turned super-bull explaining not only how bull markets often start in the dog days of August, when most fund managers are caught napping in the Hamptons, but that historically, the best bull markets ever have tended to start in August, fully supporting our own views on this August's relevance...

And so, the stage is set: Stocks had an awesome week. Microsoft gapped higher and closed near the high of the day, up around 4%. GE closed on its high, looking like it could run to $40. IBM closed near $80, following our Million Dollar Recommendation on Modar at $75 and GM broke out with minutes to spare going into the closing bell as MODAR added long positions in all metals capping off its best week ever.

Trade Well

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