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AZMN - Tech Update

Posted on 09/25/2006 16:38:36 | Link | Post Comment
AZMN Tech Update
Now that the dust has settled from Azco's monster performance this week, I thought it would be helpful to take a look at the technical picture again.

The first chart I want to look at is the monthly action since the inception of the issue. After flirting with the trend last month during the rally to 46 cents, AZMN blasted through the trend this week. Even better, it CLOSED the week above this former resistance point. Azco has been in a downtrend of sorts essentially since trading began in 1994. That came to a close this week!

Another thing I want to point out is that there is a great deal of symmetry so far between the final sell off before the 30 month basing action and the rally that began three months ago. This is very common after long periods of sideways action. In 2002 it only took four months for AZMN to fall from $1.00 to 12 cents. At the start of August, Azco was trading at 14 cents. Based on this symmetry, it would not be at all surprising to see it rally back to $1+ by the end of November.

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This second chart is a daily look just over the last couple of months. Readers will remember that after the rally to 46 cents we were looking for a dip between the 20-day and 40-day moving averages (yellow and blue lines) as a buying opportunity. The 40-day MA turned out to be key support, being tested for seven consecutive sessions in late September and early October before the next leg of the rally began. Once it did, the rally took hold with a vengeance.

The high on Thursday was just once cent above the 1:1 swing target off the June and September lows. The June low was 9 cents and the September high was 46 cents, for a 37 cent rally. The low on 9/30 was 26.5 cents, so the "normal" target for the rally was 26.5 + 37 = 63.5 cents. The high, as it turned out of course, was 64.5 cents, displaying unusually precise technical adherence.

The sell off Friday was not at all unexpected after the huge break-away rally. In fact , it fell right to the price target one could expect for a correction. My quick note Friday highlighted 46 cents as solid support now. It's the previous rally high as well as the 50% retracement of the rally from the late Sep low to Thursday's high. It's POSSIBLE that we've already seen the whole correction from the rally. If not, that's okay because there is now a lot of support under the current price action. BUT, if that was really the whole correction of the last rally we could see another explosion higher very soon.

Without getting too technical, the reason has to do with the way prices ebb and flow in waves. For a brief primer on Elliott Wave Theory, go back to the old board and look under 'Tech Talk'. Anyway, since the two rallies from the low so far are the same length, we can expect the next rally to "extend" to 162% of the first rally. So the next target...NOT the final target, just the NEXT target...would be:

45 cents + 1.62*37 cents = $1.05

That lines up really well with the symmetry target we talked about earlier. So it's possible that in the short term Azco could double in value again. And if CT and Savant are right, and I'm sure they are, that's only the beginning. There will of course be corrective pull-backs (there always are), but the weekly and monthly technicals are looking very robust. Things could get VERY interesting.

{%2f52%2fazmnts2.jpg}

Also of note, our strategic partner Barchart has given AZMN a 100% buy rating on 12 key technical indicators.

{%2f52%2fazmnbarchart.jpg}

Morningstar also issued four separate alerts on AZMN this past week.
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