Another Green Day on Wall St?

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Another Green Day on Wall St?

Posted on 03/17/2006 12:08:00 | Link | Post Comment

0920 EST Thursday March 17 2006

Good Morning: Amidst the March Madness on Wall Street yesterday, while numerous issues did move higher and many were MODAR's prime selections, there were pockets of non-performance that constituted warning signs of sorts. In particular, Intel INTC, making new lows certainly did not help the Semi-Conductor SOX sector, which got the mid-March chills just after midday and many early gainers reversed.

So, unless we can mount some kind of meaningful rebound in the SOX index today, we may have seen a late week reversal set-up. On the other hand, if today turns out to be an extra 'Green Day', then we could be in for another strong week next week, that could border on the spectacular. Actually, that is a bit of a long shot, but buying stampedes on Wall St, frequently notable for their durability, they can often defy logic. Perhaps the greatest buying stampede ever that included the largest opening gap of all time at 70 Dow points, was the rally that began January 16 1991, taking the Dow from 2448.3 to 3017.8 by March 06, 1991, heralding what became the largest bull market advance in history. These markets have been punctuated by sustained rallies and buying stampedes since the early decade lows, so we have to be prepared to give the market the space it needs to play out accordingly. As we have mentioned, we could be at the beginning of a very large 3rd wave advance and in many ways the market's internals and the broadness of the advance, suggests that such a move is possible, but we also have to remain vigilant, especially with divergences evident in the Nasdaq and Semi-Conductor indices. In the event the Nasdaq was to renew its upward trajectory along with the SOX today, the situation could turn very bullish indeed, if not even dynamically bullish...

This morning Copper is almost setting new all-time record highs again, in another stunning rebound and display of strength and this could mean that we may be headed to our next objective of up around $2.50 per pound. Meanwhile Silver is knocking on heaven's door just shy of new multi-decade year highs and Gold continues to follow in lock-step. The premium of Silver over Gold is unusual but potentially a plus.

As we have been saying all week, the Dollar has been in a minor freefall and we have almost reached the point of no-return for the US unit.
While a Dollar rally from here can't be ruled out and the Dollar still could recover, any significant lower moves would be verging on terminal and while that may be viewed as tougher for affordability of imports, it should be highly stimulative for the US Economy, Stocks and Gold.

Trade Well
From the Desk of Savant

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